Big Digital Energy

0:00 Hey, Collide, welcome in to Post Freeze. What did they call it? What was the name of this? Fern. Fern. Where'd they get that? So underwhelming. Which was kind of maybe a theme for the storm.

0:14 Your sound sinister. Fern sounds like you're great at somewhere. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. So I don't know where we got the storm. But I guess we'll grade

0:27 the grid and see how it did. Mark, why don't you kick us off? Well, I would say Fern, at least from a Texas standpoint, didn't have the southern impact that Yuri had. I mean, Houston was kind

0:43 of a nothing burger around here. Even though public schools canceled Monday. Yeah, I don't know. I wasn't here. I didn't get here until Monday. And everything was high and dry So, you know, We

0:60 do have an on scene correspondent in Dallas. How are things up there? I mean, we have, we have snow on the ground still. I don't know if you can see, but outside is still like, that is snow.

1:15 Can you see? Oh, wow, yeah. It's everywhere. What is that white stuff of you speak? That's snow. I don't know, it's snow, which actually, do you know the street value of snow right now?

1:30 No, Senator, I can either confirm nor deny. We took a drive yesterday, but it was like, you have to be careful. Now, if you guys are friends of social media and you go on Instagram, there were

1:48 so many great posts of the shit shows of people trying to drive in Austin, because when they see ice, they go faster and then they get it. like then you were screwed, it's hilarious. Go to

2:02 Instagram, you'll see some great posts. You know, I used to live in Dallas for a year and I lived basically in a loft apartment at Woodall Rogers in '75. And we had a great - Yeah. We had a great

2:16 freeze and me and the ex-wife sat there and we were kind of overlooking the ramp from '75 onto Woodall Rogers And what was crazy about that is literally cars were littered there. And you would see

2:33 this Honda Civic go, oh yeah, I'm gonna be the one that made it. And it would drive up there, stop. You could tell the wheels would spend for a while and then it would slide down and smash into

2:46 the cars. And we sat around and watched that all night. I think we drank two bottles of wine. So it sounds like maybe there was a repeat of that on Austin, But now don't get mad at me. Like, I'm

2:57 gonna turn off some guests here, but like, I'm just gonna say it out loud. On Monday, I walked, actually, it might have been Sunday, I walked over, I'm walking distance from the Inwood Tavern,

3:13 the famous bar that Scotty Scheffler visited after winning the Masters two years ago. And it snowed in, like, there's no one inside, no one can get around, but there's one bar, and I'm in the

3:26 middle of the median taking a photo of the Inwood Tavern, I'll send it to you. And he's going 60 miles an hour. Like, where is he going? But he's driving on ice as if it was nothing. And I just

3:41 kind of, he almost hit me. And I'm like, what are you doing? What is it about being stuck at home that drives people nuts? But the worst offenders are trucks These damn trot, these guys and

3:55 these big ass. F-250s drive around as if they own the road that ICE doesn't apply to them. And they almost run into everyone. I just am like, I don't get it. Slow down. Where are you going? So

4:11 I got here Monday afternoon. I was meeting up with the buddy of mine up in the woodlands and he said, I might

4:19 arrive after you get there, I'm out. Well, it turns out there was impact all the way as far south as Livingston, he had gone up to recreate it. I didn't even know there were Indian casinos in

4:33 Texas, but there's some smaller ones around Livingston. So he drove the hour and a half, only to discover that the casino was closed. What kind of degenerate gambler are you that you drive to

4:46 Livingston, Texas on your snow day off? Nice old guy, you know, it's to go gamble, but God bless him. Yeah, I thought Livingston was the place you don't want to be at night after dark, you

4:59 know? Yeah. It wasn't the Texas Chainsaw Massacre like really happened around those woods. Probably, all I can think of is dueling banjos, but why don't we do this? Let's go through the country

5:14 and actually rank order this stuff. I'll kick off, let's go to the Northeast and Mark, I don't want to steal your thunder Give us the great stat from the Northeast. Well, Brian Sullivan, among

5:27 others, was tweeting in the midst or the depths of the chill and at one time New England peaked in its gen stack, burning 40 of the generation in oil, which I think may have eclipsed the previous

5:48 record that

5:50 certainly married a thing one has talked about.

5:54 You know, it points out the irony that we're all familiar with, which is you have one of the largest gas fields in the world, about 300 miles south of New England, Boston. But we, we get into

6:08 these situations in extreme cold, where you have curtailments to gas-fired power generation because you've got natural gas-dependent home heating And so we've got, you know, we've got another

6:25 example of, you know, we build 500 mile pipelines. I think the latest one to come on Matterhorn Express, which is a whitewater-wise two and a half BCF day line, that got built in commission in

6:38 like 17 months, over 500 miles. And here we are, I think it was in September of 2004, range resources, you know, demonstrated viability of the modern Marcellus by successfully drilling and

6:53 completing a horizontal well in the Marcellus. And we know what the Marcellus is today. It produces something close to 28 BCF a day, you know, in a country that isn't shut into to freeze offices.

7:06 I think peak last year, peak gas production in the US was around 108 BCF a day. So the Marcellus is, you know, a giant contributor to US gas production. Relatively untapped by some critical

7:19 population centers in the Northeast. Now they do use gas, but they don't get enough of it to be able to not rely and switch over to oil. Well, and just a level set, burning oil is a shade better

7:40 than burning coal. Right. But still, almost more than 2X burning natural gas. And so, I mean,

7:50 I can't help but feel a little bit angry about the hypocrisy of the lectures I have received from the state of Massachusetts about, Oh, you're in Texas with all those hydrocarbons, and this is how

8:07 they choose to heat themselves, because this is all policy. Right. So those off-door wind farms that killed all those great whales are not powering you Eating the houses? What happened? Yeah,

8:22 I'm sorry. I didn't mean to speak ill of you and your people, Kirk.

8:29 He's a New England carpet banger.

8:31 It's bunker oil. I mean, it's not just oil. It's not the oil that you use to cook vegetables in or your steak. Why use butter? But screw that. We're talking about the stuff at the very bottom.

8:49 gross stuff, 40

8:52 during peak. That's crazy. Yeah, it really is. Speaker trough, if you think directionally about high temperatures, low temperatures, but it's just something that continues to crop up every few

9:08 years where we have these

9:11 extreme weather events And we've, we're 20, almost 22 years past the opening of the modern Marcellus, and yet here we are. And obviously still no production in the state of New York down there on

9:29 the Pennsylvania border, where we know the geology doesn't honor the state boundaries, but it's just, and the fact that we're still importing LNG into Boston is, it's just, you know, it's ironic.

9:47 Yeah, 'cause we need our Russian shipment periodically. We're trying to add her. And all the diesel, they have to burn to get it in the ship from Trinidad. Here's a Jones Act opening for you.

9:59 Yeah, good for you. Why don't they use that eerie canal that they built in New York to move the shit? But hey, who's talking? Yeah, well, you

10:14 know, switching to Urquat Sure, let's come back to Texas. You know, Texas certainly had a better in Tennessee. I think Tennessee was leading in - So daughter Sarah's at Vandy and her quote on the

10:28 family, you know, Hey, everybody check in, let me know how you're doing. Dad, it's an ice skating rink here, everywhere. Well, they lost the Nashville area in particular got hit pretty hard

10:38 in terms of outages. And I know this is in Urquat and my son is over in Memphis. And two years ago, they had a hard extended freeze and snow event, and they had a bunch of water main breaks,

10:52 power losses. They were scattering all over to, you know, friends' houses and bunking up there or going to hotels, and they were

11:03 considering, after baseball practice on Friday, because they knew there was going to be class cancellations deep into this week, they were thinking about going to one of their suite mates' homes in

11:15 Nashville, but they stayed in Memphis kind of last minute decision, and it turned out better because I was following the Memphis utilities outages map, and it was just onesie-toozy stuff. So, you

11:30 know, Tennessee was pretty hard hit. I think Texas, what were Texas peak outages over150, 000 or200, 000? Yeah, I was going to say200, 000 and it felt like that was kind of south. Texas and

11:45 then that got more than you would expect. That's because that that Arctic air flow effect kind of goes around and then comes back up. Yeah, Deb, CDU, Gulf Coast. Yeah, we need Chris Marsh to

12:00 explain that. It was pretty not. I mean, it was actually pretty minimal. And I mean, the grid held, but when was putting up a donut? Zolar was effectively napping and batteries were sidelined.

12:16 Why? Because when power spikes to2, 000 a megawatt hour, you don't discharge your battery

12:24 for300, it's basic echomelimics. So let's talk about that. It's hilarious that it seems like basic echomelimics is advanced calculus for the grid planners. So I took a, you all know, I took a

12:36 snapshot Sunday evening before I came to Texas or my favorite dashboard, 626 pm. on Sunday evening,

12:46 solar was at zero because obviously the sun's down. When was 10 and that's on a monthly capacity, solar of 356 gigawatts. When does another 406 gigawatts and batteries were at kind of 17. So

13:03 effectively everything, but when was zero and then you've got natural gas at two thirds,

13:13 coal was another 14 and then nuclear at

13:20 77 which is almost full utilization. My question about the battery, somebody posed this

13:28 on Twitter either early this morning or yesterday and what you described there, Kirk, why weren't we discharging more when when we hit those power price spikes.

13:42 Their reference case was

13:45 2000 a megawatt hour, but they were discharging when prices were down at 300

13:49 a megawatt hour. How does that all work? We've got 17 gigs of almost 18 gigs of monthly capacity. That's

13:59 how our cut describes the stack.

14:03 Why aren't we discharging

14:06 more, I don't know, opportunistically or taking advantage of a fully charged battery fleet

14:16 to maybe smooth some of those price spikes? Well, they're not getting paid. The battery owners and operators aren't getting paid at the2, 000 a megawatt hour. If they were, I'd be just

14:30 discharging all day long. So it must be contractful that they're, they bid into the market at a price And that's the price that they're going to deliver, I guess.

14:43 Anybody have the answer? I'm less than novice at understanding. So I read some stuff and I am not going to claim to be an expert on this, but the cold weather supposedly put a little bit of a

14:59 wrench in the capabilities of the batteries, that they underperform just because of basic physics and cold weather doesn't help them 100, like when it's below freezing, your EV doesn't, like,

15:17 things are weird. Yeah, as a test, yeah,

15:22 as a Tesla, I owned a Tesla for, I think, seven years and cold weather, I didn't get as far as it said I should have gotten. Yeah, this

15:34 is probably

15:36 not fair to ERCOT,

15:38 but I was pondering it when we were going through the coldest and looking at, you know, once again, thermal is

15:49 carrying the bulk of the load. And we have all this capacity, this nameplate capacity defined as wind, solar, and batteries. And you just look at the kind of complexity of the system that has

16:05 been built or what has become ERCOT over the last 20 years And I got the fleeting thought that it's the world's biggest Rube Goldberg system. It just intuitively just strikes me as overly complex.

16:27 And it's because Colin and I were talking about it yesterday in the case of Waymo versus Tesla.

16:34 Tesla's built on a platformer, a foundation of software and the car was. The physical car was designed with that kind of core principle, whereas Waymo, you've got all the LiDAR stuff, and you've

16:53 adapted that technology to the, like in the case of most of them that I see in Phoenix, the Jaguar I-PACE. And it's, you know, it's just a completely different foundational design concept. And

17:07 so what we've done with wind, solar, and batteries on, particularly from a transmission and distribution standpoint, we've created kind

17:17 of a bolt on to a grid, particularly from a transmission and distribution standpoint that was designed for big centralized thermal power generation. Well, and then so agree with that. Let's make

17:32 it worse. Let's layer a tax code on top of it that subsidizes certain aspects versus another. which of course leads to more of the mess. And something I don't think I've fully appreciated in an

17:47 appropriate response to this is, well, no shit Sherlock, but a very, very thin layer of snow and solar's out. I mean, you're covering the panels and they just don't function even if the sun's

18:01 out. So. And it's too expensive to have or a cost prohibitive that have immediate response, cleaning of those panels in real time. Yeah. So they can operate. Yeah. So on the batteries, is it,

18:16 you know, 17 gigawatts and this is way oversimplified. So let's say you've got 17 gigawatts fully charged. You gotta feed that out. That's, you know, assuming that you have 12 hours of dark and

18:32 the batteries are meant to back up solar, Are you, are you then able to

18:38 only discharge?

18:41 like a gig an hour because you've got to cover that entire period, plus how much of the solar fleet is dependent upon intermittent recharging? How much of the recharging is done with solar andor

18:59 wind? And you can't always count on that. So you've got to kind

19:04 of manage that discharge. I don't - we need to get somebody on here We need to get somebody on here who understands, because if you look at Texas peak demand, I think is in the most we've ever seen

19:22 close to 85 gigawatts in the summer. And that's - yeah, we have 95

19:29 gigawatts of monthly capacity defined as renewables, solar, wind, and storage, and

19:37 smattering of hydro, which is not consequential.

19:40 So we've built nameplate that

19:43 is already 10 gigawatts over the max that we've ever seen on ERCOT in terms of demand. Yeah. And yet, you know, gas is 68.

19:55 We got another 14 in coal. So coal, gas and nuclear with a very thin reserve margin could, you know, could theoretically perform to fill that kind of peak demand spike. Yeah. And just, I know

20:14 we've talked about this here, but to give a backdrop, ERCOT is different than the other islands. It's an island, but it also has a

20:27 different approach to generation. Most other grids, you have to do a study. Do we need more generation? Do we need more generation here, etc? ERCOT says, Any generation you wanna put on the

20:40 system, knock yourself out, I'm gonna turn you off though when I need to turn you off. That combined with the aforementioned tax situation where renewables or subsidized has led to this

20:56 Frankenstein of just generation kind of everywhere. And so

21:03 ERCOT's sitting there having to manage turning things on, shutting things off I wonder if that played into effect with the battery because maybe the batteries aren't allowed to discharge 'cause

21:14 they're in a spot where we have. Well, let's get the answers and come back next week with an update. So that sounds like homework. I don't do homework very well, but - Well, isn't there a

21:27 software AI thing called collide? Doesn't it do stuff like this? We could go ask collide

21:37 So closing out the Arctic segment. Um, we, we did have about 10 BCF a day of gas production. That was, um, offline because of freeze off primarily. And you did have some derivative effects. I

21:52 think X on Baytown shut down some of it's, it's processing units. You had a good year plant that got curtailed or shut down. And then, you know, cold weather causes problems with gas specs as

22:07 reported by energy transfer. I think they got some off-spec gas at one of their, at one of their, one of their plants or compressor stations. So it wasn't nearly as, I think, impactful from a

22:21 widespread, you know, residential standpoint that, um, you know, was, was certainly not the breathless headline reporting that we saw back in Yuri. Well, and, and part of the reason for that,

22:34 God's like Toby Rice. Shout out to CEO of EQT. Kirk, did you see Toby's from the man in the field? Yeah, he was helping to

22:47 get Wells back online. I mean, literally looking like a fieldhand, no suit, no Davos badge, just hard hat and operations. I mean, I'm tired of these CEOs, energy CEOs that look like they're

23:01 auditioning for a head talk. Toby's out there reminding the market and that this industry isn't about spreadsheets or ESG scores. It's about steel pressure and mud. I mean, I loved it, man. Yeah.

23:18 And Jacob, if you cut in one of at least a short clip of Toby's stuff, I think that was really cool. I've got his ex post that has the two-part, I think it's a two-part little video clip. It's

23:30 pretty cool. So wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait,

23:33 wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait,

23:34 wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait,

23:34 wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait I hate that we're gonna have to talk this, but Mark

23:39 Mills is our dude, friend of the show, friend of ours, go ahead, Mark. Why do you hate talking about it? Because we talk about the IEA all the time. So you put the one on the show together.

23:50 You can, you know, this is IEA

23:55 on steroids. The crux of the issue is the IEA, but you had, so Mark was - We love the IEA, aren't they? Let's do the sponsor, roll the IEA sponsorship - Commercial. Yeah, exactly. So Mark is,

24:11 you know, it's a fairly recent,

24:14 for lack of a better term kind of energy macrothink tank. He's

24:19 the executive director of the National Center for Energy Analytics, and they took the topic of the IEA the topic of the IEA's latest world energy outlook. the subject of the briefing that they held

24:38 it was Mark, Adam Sminsky, Neil Atkinson, and the great Bob McNally from Rapidant. And there were some, I think some really kind of interesting, at least from my perspective,

24:55 underappreciated and under amplified, and they did a really good job of it. We've got the clip attached here It's an hour-long discussion that I found to be outstanding. But basically, what's

25:11 happened in the preceding five years when the IEA took the current policy scenarios completely out of the outlook in all of its reports between 2020 and 2024. And when they got to Bob McNally, They

25:30 talked about it from a global markets and macro perspective. He focused on industry and what the misguiding of not having the current policy scenarios or reference case, which a lot of policymakers

25:46 and a lot of, you know, ultimately companies are doing with respect to capital allocation. So if you look at the first 15 years of this century and then go and look at the capital spending trends

26:02 in oil and gas, and then you look at since 2015, we all know there's been pretty significant contraction in global upstream spending.

26:14 It's a pretty big number. And so now that the IEA is saying we're going to restore the current policy scenario, we've got, they did their global depletion rates report, we have essentially since

26:31 2015 to now dug and under investment hole of15 trillion.

26:40 And a lot of things have to happen to either incentivize or through geopolitical solutions, what if Iran gets solved? What if, you know - Then as well it comes back. What if Russia's back on sides?

26:56 Right. Okay, all those things are, you know, where's the capacity going to come from if demand's not going to peak by 2030, which is now off the table even for the IEA. In fact, you know, 120

27:08 million barrels a day by 2050 is a pretty steep challenge. It's pretty tall hurdle to get over, to think about adding, you know, more than 15 million barrels a day in the face of higher depletion

27:27 rates and companies that are leading this, particularly the Super Majors and the IOCs. who have been very reticent, particularly on the exploration front. We're at a post World War II low in

27:41 global exploration spending. Yeah, let me throw something out here to play the other side. No, I'm not sure I fully believe this, but I don't know if it's the most unrational thing on the planet

27:58 because the shale revolution did a couple of things One, it took Hubble's peak and actually reversed it in the United States, we doubled oil production.

28:13 But number two, the pivot, the ability to literally on a dime move from exploration projects that take years to get online to literally 18 months being able to grow production rapidly or even

28:33 shorter.

28:36 has has changed the dynamics. Does that mean we we need that extra one and a half trillion? I don't know. The counter argument would be, hey, we've that those were tier one acreage and shale and

28:52 those are gone. Those are the discussions we need to be having. But I think if you're a non-energy observer,

29:02 you know, you would ultimately just point to, well, the price of oil hasn't been that high. So the markets kind of sit in there telling us this isn't that unreasonable. Chuck, I respectfully

29:14 disagree. I think it's not 15 trillion. I think

29:19 it's three trillion. Let's go. Hey, Kirk, let's go old Saturday Night Live, Dan Aykroyd and Jane Cardin. Jane, you ignorant slut.

29:28 This is both

29:29 far away. I am wrong. Far away. Most of our audience has no point of reference there. What did the Shell Revolution teach us? That that oil is more expensive and harder to get out of the ground

29:42 the more we need. That seems to be, so we're drilling in tight rock. We're exploring in ultra deep water. But what has happened is, yes, of course, this is an economic, it's easier to buy a

29:59 barrel than it is to find a barrel. But finding barrels is usually unless you're shell and you can't figure out how to explore, but that's a different issue, is if you can find your own barrel,

30:14 you're gonna make more money. And the lack of exploration, the lack of technology growth, I've been beating this drum since 2010 Yes, I've been right, the answer is If we don't care in our

30:27 lifetime, it doesn't matter. But if you are an energy company that's trying to get ahead of everyone, economics will support you going and finding cheap oil, which quote unquote cheap. It's gonna

30:45 be harder and harder to find, but you need to still explore. And what have we found in our last hundred years? We keep finding oil, so keep exploring Yeah, and I think most, at least in the US,

30:60 programs are still heavily oriented, both geology and petroleum engineering, still heavily unconventional oriented. And so true kind of conventional prospect generation, skills are, I would argue,

31:15 at a fairly low capacity. And so you made the correct point,

31:23 It's more expensive or more capital intensive when you start talking about that again, Mark, what set second only to your list of Holly saying you were right, Kirk, Holly says that all the time.

31:36 It comes back every, every fourth blue moon, I hear that, but you BDE to listen not does She. lucky so are

31:46 The big energy companies, maybe Exxon's good, you could argue this, the new or former Exxon employee, I guess, the big, ultra, the majors can't compete against US focused on shore

32:05 unconventional. Right. They don't move fast. They're not over. Engineer. So they have to

32:10 go to the crazy places What funny is some US based energy companies are competing against the majors in these. foreign lands, which is, I think, really interesting, but you are right, but these

32:27 big majors can't do it. I covered, I covered XTO for quite a while as an independent. And then when Exxon acquired XTO, I said they need to acquire XTO and then leave it alone in every way, shape

32:44 and form, because the independence, unconventional, nimble, high speed, high velocity, you know, getting at these, all these incremental efficiencies to compound into, you know, best in

32:60 class wells, the super majors, kind of cultural and operating practice overlay is not, is not well fit for that. I've always said that. I've said that for a long time. And if you look at, I

33:13 forget who tweeted out about making a lot of shells exit from Argentina and the Vaca Marta. Well, we've seen the majors leave Argentina, arguably for a number of reasons, it's not because the

33:28 geologic and reservoir potential of macamortas is not great, but there are difficulties presented by a number of things, geomechanics, overpressure, things like that. If you remember, Shell

33:42 broke their pick in the Eagleford,

33:44 right? They didn't have a very good run in the Permian I remember going after the Houston Open, and when they were sponsoring, they always had analysts come out, and they were talking about this

33:55 emerging,

33:58 we're getting a lot better in the Permian, but they were still 20 to 25 behind the independence average of performance from well productivity, and certainly from a cost standpoint, they were even

34:12 further behind

34:15 Conventional is always going to have a place not only because of that's more aligned with the IOCs and the super major DNA, if you will. But it's also, you know, for the size of their asset

34:33 portfolio, a big conventional play like Guyana for Exxon is gonna move the needle. Right. And so, managing, I think when XTO was at its peak, I think they were, I think they were in like 50

34:48 rigs out in the Permian, that's just not sustainable. No. In

34:56 that framework of a super major. Yeah. Because that's a lot of people to begin with. So, I'll put forth a compromise between the mill's view of the world where one and a half trillion

35:13 under-invested chicken-little of the sky's falling, although I say that with luck. Kirk said three trillion, go double that. That's where I am. Okay, and I say that with love, 'cause Mark is a

35:26 great dude. I'm a big fan. Mark's pretty smart, by the way. And they give you that. The counter of that is nothing cures low oil prices, like low oil prices, nothing cures high oil prices,

35:38 like high oil prices. And at the end of the day, we're still only getting 10 of the oil in place out We got 90 left to play with. And within the crucible of the United States, private ownership of

35:54 minerals, active capital markets, the most entrepreneurial, smartest people on the planet in the business. We'll go figure it out. They've always figured out a way to execute. For sure. Which

36:09 is why the cost of oil is still less than a bottle on a per unit equivalence than a bottle of Evian water. you know, has shown no inflation in price over the last 30 years. I think the real point

36:24 was the, you know, this lunatic five-year period from 2020 to 24,

36:32 created by kind of taking realism out of the reference case. It hasn't done so much damage here in the United States as it's done, particularly in Europe, in EU countries So they committed to and

36:48 went far down paths, not, you know, happily assuming, you know, what the IEA said from a policy standpoint, and they were able to use that to run interference on the pushback. So the other

37:02 aspect of this that was interesting to me is,

37:06 even if the restoration of the current policy scenario means status quo as is,

37:12 there's a little bit of a risk, that demand will surprise to the upside because as we've seen in the US, in, you know, where we've had these populist movements, what the UK. has done on ICE bans,

37:27 what we've done in terms of removing electric vehicle subsidies, there's kind of rolling back from this wave of transition and policy setting euphoria So if demand surprises the upside, if that 15

37:44 trillion of underinvestment in the reference cases right, if the reference case gets adjusted and on the margin you're kind of going back to fossil fuels, is there a surprise to the upside and

37:59 should we be incorporating those what-ifs into the reference case? And I think it's fair to say this is somewhat setting the

38:08 ground for, I told you so.

38:14 which I think is fair and it should be our job as energy experts to educate the world on this. Well, they were each

38:28 justifiably commending the IEA at its foundational level. Great data and really, really good analyst. And as I've been saying for quite a while, it is an IEA leadership problem And I think there's

38:42 a pretty radical overhaul of the leadership that needs to take place. And so

38:49 that's really my takeaways. And I apologize for ambushing you with another IEA segment. I was just going on. Dude, you know, we, hey, Doc and I know it's always around the corner, Mark. We

39:03 know that you're just waiting to throw an IEA segment in. We know that, okay. Exactly. And at the end of the day, we do need to go get more oil because. Senator Warren needs to have something to

39:17 burn to stay warm in these times. So anyway, well, I'm glad we all survived Fern and anyway, do it again next week. And I know we cut off India, sorry. That's fine. But I got to go sell some

39:34 software. Is a software salesman, is there,

39:42 how do you contribute to the scoping discussions? Dude, I actually - Don't sales people like infinite scope? No, no, and in all seriousness, if you're, I've been on the board of, call it 100,

39:58 oil and gas companies, and when things go boom in

40:05 the night and you got a parachute in, I actually understand, I think the workflows of an oil and gas company,

40:11 Uh, more so than the most people. And so I'm actually a contributor to the, uh, scope. You're taking some shots to that. I have, I played golf with some like software sales guys and they all

40:27 drive really expensive cars. So I think you need to show success. You need to get a cyber truck It's time to get back into the game because it's, it's time. So, so I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm still

40:45 driving my Hyundai, but, uh, as soon as I start getting paid for being the world's greatest AI software salesman, I am going to go buy a Corvette because I think every American man needs to own a

40:58 Corvette. I think corvettes are peaking these days. And if I wait more than five years, I'm not going to be able to sit in the, uh, sit in the car. So. That, that is the goal in 20, 20, if

41:12 you're value shopping, you can get a good deal on an F-150 Lightning. I am not a Corvette guy, but my wife's brother is waiting for it to be built. And I didn't realize there's only one place in

41:27 Bowling Green or somewhere where they build them. So I also really didn't realize there's like four different models So Chuck, which Corvette are you looking at? I'm not allowing myself to look at

41:43 them yet because I don't want to jinx it. But anyway, all right, you don't want to jinx Collins. 6067. Hey, those would be cool. All right, guys. Is that why Colin doesn't come on the show

41:59 anymore is because there's tension between When am I going to get my paycheck? It sounds like an episode of office space. Oh, we got bigger issues to fry than me getting paid, but all right,

42:14 everybody, if you enjoyed the show, please share it with a friend, leave comments, be gentle 'cause you know I'm fragile of ego and boys, good to see y'all. Good to see you. I love the new

42:25 setup. I do like the new setup. This is great. Hey, and don't forget, I launched a new podcast called Unrigged because the corporate game is rigged against executives over 40. It's a career

42:38 management podcast. Jump over there if you want to listen to it at thereturncom. Yeah, congrats on that. Love you guys. Congrats on that, love you too, man. And I'll be listening drive time on

42:50 the way back across town today, so look forward to it. Perfect. Everybody should give it a listen and read his stuff. Good And what's the name of your advisory business? The return, the return

43:04 E-T-E-R-N. Recurn, the turn is a bird that has the longest migration, 44, 000 miles every year. And I've seen them, there's awesome. They hang out up in Northern Scotland and then they fly down

43:21 to Antarctica and back every year. That's cool. All right, man, go get busy.