Brent Whipsaws, Trump Turns on Zelenskyy & Venture Global Goes AI Utility | BDE 10.20.26
00:00:01 [Speaker 1]
Hey, everybody.
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Welcome to BDE Big Digital Energy.
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We are back.
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And I apologize because we may not get to energy on this show.
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Where are we going first?
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Are we doing the Longhorns, me hanging out with Andre Agassi?
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Mark looks like he's ready to talk Tampa Bay in the World Series.
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Who wants up?
00:00:24 [Speaker 2]
I I think the, I I I I think the Andre Agassi probably needs to lead off.
00:00:31 [Speaker 1]
Alright.
00:00:32 [Speaker 1]
So Scott and Kim Sheffield have retired, you know, pioneer CEO after the sale, retired to Santa Fe, and built just the most mack daddy tennis center on the planet.
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It's gorgeous.
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And there was this great charity in Santa Fe called First Serve, helped underprivileged kids learn tennis, life skills, prepare them to go into any country club in America.
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And they've kind of merged this together, and so they did a big huge gala this weekend, and every tennis pro on the planet was there.
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Or let me rephrase it.
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Every tennis pro that I had a poster for on my room wall when I was 13 years old was there.
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Andre Agassi, Steffi Graf, Mats Wilander, Martina Navratilova, Tracy Austin.
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Oh my god.
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Tracy Austin.
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Oh.
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And then You
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don't have, Heather Locklear on your wall, Chuck?
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Come on.
00:01:33 [Speaker 1]
Well, yeah, dude.
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But we're in tennis mode.
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We're talking tennis.
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So, anyway, and there were probably 25.
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The Bryan brothers were there.
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There were probably 25 pros that played on the tour.
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So, anyway, it was amazing.
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Got to hang with all of them.
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The two quick funny stories of this are the pro that runs the tennis center for the Sheffields is a guy named TJ Middleton.
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When I was 13 years old at the Houston Coca Cola Open at the Southwest Tennis Center on Fondren in Houston, Texas, On Court 17, TJ beat me six zero six o.
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Didn't even get a game off him.
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I wonder if dad gummit was there.
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But when
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I was Chuck.
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Probably said...
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But this was the great thing.
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So, anyway, I'm there.
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Wait.
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Wait.
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Did he say I thought that I would...
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You know, some kid from Rosenberg shows up?
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Oh.
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Wow.
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Wow.
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So so the reason that TJ Middleton is the second coolest person on the planet was we're out there at the ranch.
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All the pros are hanging out, and TJ kept calling me over.
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Hey, Chuck.
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Come over here.
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I want you to meet Brad Gilbert.
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And he'd be like, hey.
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Tell Brad where we met.
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So I'd have to fess up to the story of getting demolished six zero six o.
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But the way TJ did it, he...
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It was so cool.
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He's like, this is one of us, Brad.
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You know?
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And, it was cool.
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Got to hang out with all of them.
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The second story I'll tell, and then I'll shut up, is went up to Andre Agassi, fanboyed on him, told him that, you know, 13 year old Chuck thought he was coolest person on the planet.
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And then we broed out talking about kids' literacy.
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You know, I'm on the board of YDC after school literacy program for Houston's 5th Ward.
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Andre Agassi has opened a 100 charter schools across America, and we were finishing each other's sentences about literacy quotes, like, third grade literacy rates are how states build, prisons project how many they need in twelve years and stuff like that.
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And it was like, you know, when you get to meet your hero and they're cooler in real life than you imagined, It was just awesome.
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So, anyway, I'll send Jacob my, my pick with, Andre Agassi, and he can pop it up at some point.
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There you go.
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Me and I.
00:04:05 [Speaker 3]
Andre is probably saying the same story about I got to hang hang out with Chuck Yates.
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Kirk, you are so cool to say that.
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Was he jealous of your haircut?
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You know you know what was actually really cool is I took the the selfie, and I said, hey.
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Are you cool if I put this on social media?
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And he said, Chuck, I'd be honored.
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And I was like, oh god.
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You're even cooler.
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But, that's this morning's old man coffee that I dropped.
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I talked about TJ and Andre and hanging out with all of them.
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So We
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should do an episode on the last one.
00:04:42 [Speaker 1]
Y'all kinda talked over each other.
00:04:45 [Speaker 3]
Yeah.
00:04:45 [Speaker 3]
I was just saying just to remind everybody, we are gonna talk energy.
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I had breakfast with one of the old Midland families deep in oil and gas.
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So they're listening to the show right now.
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So Okay.
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And they talked about our take, but we're...
00:05:00 [Speaker 3]
We have to still talk about, you know, the Longhorns and what else before we get into it.
00:05:09 [Speaker 1]
Jump jump the Longhorns real quick.
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We'll just get that out of talk about.
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So Fair enough.
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Okay.
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Then then I gotta get them next week.
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Then I gotta give Mark Myers credit because the funniest joke I've ever seen was I've never seen Texas see 24 unanswered points like that since the last time Vince Young took the Wunderlich.
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That was genius, Mark.
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Aggie Buddy sent me that, so I had to pass it along.
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We don't have much to, to joke about these days, but it's nice.
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It's it's nice to have the folks in Austin join us in the, in the SUS pool.
00:05:47 [Speaker 1]
In misery, we'll make misery.
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Alright.
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Mark, either kick us off or Kirk kick us off on the, family wherever we wanna go.
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Let's go, Mark.
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I'll go there.
00:06:01 [Speaker 2]
So, you know, we're...
00:06:03 [Speaker 2]
I I just saw a post by Jim Kramer, gleefully proclaiming that WTI is down a lot.
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I know there's eleventh hour.
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I don't know.
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This may be the thirty eighth time that Pakistan has mediated, or attempted to.
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And so this is as fresh as it gets.
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So wanted to talk about kind of the restrictions that we've seen in Hormuz relative to, you know, what...
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What's happened to the price action on crude.
00:06:37 [Speaker 2]
Saw Brent almost touch a 112 this morning.
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And then time spreads also blowing out between current and prompt month where you've got, you know, over $9 here recently and as low as a buck.
00:06:50 [Speaker 2]
So a lot of volatility in the front end of the curve and, you know, what it's what it's pricing in is just the the the chaos that continues in terms of what the, kind of the ultimate situation is in the straight of Fort Moose.
00:07:04 [Speaker 2]
So we're back focused on crude.
00:07:07 [Speaker 2]
There's a lot of hopeful talk out there that, you know, this latest round, the ultimate resolution, just kinda buckle in and brace yourself for more volatility.
00:07:19 [Speaker 3]
I mean, Mark, let's just try to level set everybody here.
00:07:23 [Speaker 3]
We're talking about crude, but but everyone wants to hear about diesel.
00:07:28 [Speaker 3]
Why don't you tie the two together and tell us what this means?
00:07:34 [Speaker 2]
Well, we've we've been...
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As we talked about a few months ago, we've we've pivoted from, you know, the oil market being crude led to products led, particularly diesel.
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And as we've got coming in a in a...
00:07:50 [Speaker 2]
In really the next segment talking about, the the more shrill rhetoric coming out of the administration as it relates to, you know, the havoc that Ukraine continues to rake on on on Russian refining.
00:08:03 [Speaker 2]
We talked about the, special deal of Russian diesel coming to The US to the tune and 36,000,000 barrels.
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Yet prices, you know, continue to climb.
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I saw Patrick posted this morning diesel continues to, to creep up.
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So, the market's not believing it on the product side.
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And until we get the, kind of the refining capacity and production sorted out, now we're in front of, you know, the time when fall maintenance begins.
00:08:34 [Speaker 2]
We're we're going to have this continued trade off intention between, the market's focus on crude and the market's focus on diesel.
00:08:41 [Speaker 2]
I just know that what, you know, what folks are facing at the pump, truckers and ordinary drivers are facing at the pump these days, now that early voting has started, I, you know, I I think the administration and and incumbents are in a in a fairly precarious situation.
00:09:01 [Speaker 3]
Hey, Mark.
00:09:03 [Speaker 3]
Permian Paulina asked, if Pakistan's mediation actually lands, how fast does Brent give back the war premium?
00:09:12 [Speaker 3]
Good question, Paulina.
00:09:15 [Speaker 2]
I I I just think you see the velocity in in the trading that it, you know, it happens pretty quickly.
00:09:22 [Speaker 2]
You know, we're we're in, we're in kind of the sell the sell the, sell the rumor, sell the news mode to an extreme degree.
00:09:31 [Speaker 2]
So I I, you know, I think $10 moves are not out of the question if this thing gets some traction.
00:09:36 [Speaker 1]
Well, I mean, if you look at it, I mean, what?
00:09:39 [Speaker 1]
Crude's, Brent's 110 right now.
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You look out five years, it's in the sixties.
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I mean, that's...
00:09:46 [Speaker 1]
The market's pricing that as a payday loan, not a fundamental shift in something.
00:09:52 [Speaker 2]
Yeah.
00:09:52 [Speaker 2]
That's exactly right.
00:09:53 [Speaker 2]
It's telling you, you know, gotta gotta have barrels today.
00:09:57 [Speaker 2]
They're worth a lot more, which makes which makes capital planning on the part of the, upstream sector going into 2027 particularly problematic.
00:10:09 [Speaker 2]
Not that it...
00:10:10 [Speaker 2]
Not ever is, but, going into '27 now that we've had sustained quarters of of, quote, unquote, windfall for producers and and record record numbers or significant increases in financial performance quarter over quarter and year over year.
00:10:29 [Speaker 1]
I I do wanna do something that I never thought I would do in my career.
00:10:36 [Speaker 1]
But way back in the day, I spent a little bit of time on the refineries, thought maybe there was an opportunity to do something at Cain.
00:10:44 [Speaker 1]
We never did anything, but I I killed some brain cells.
00:10:48 [Speaker 1]
I never thought I would be in the position to defend Bruce Smith who got run out of Tesoro back in 2010.
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Who knew that all he needed to do was start global wars between Ukraine and Russia and Us bombing Iran to really bring home the returns for his shareholder?
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He was just a little misguided.
00:11:11 [Speaker 1]
Sorry you missed it, Bruce, but, apologies headed your way.
00:11:19 [Speaker 1]
Tell me you will tell me you will find that take on any other energy show anywhere on the planet.
00:11:24 [Speaker 1]
Chuck.
00:11:25 [Speaker 1]
Thank you.
00:11:25 [Speaker 3]
Here's my Thank you.
00:11:26 [Speaker 3]
Here's my question, Chuck.
00:11:28 [Speaker 1]
Let's Yeah.
00:11:28 [Speaker 3]
Let's stay in West Texas.
00:11:31 [Speaker 3]
What acreage starts coming into play now that we have sustained and maybe long term oil prices?
00:11:41 [Speaker 3]
Because people are asking me...
00:11:43 [Speaker 3]
You know, they have land just right on the edge, but which edge are we betting on at this point if you're back at Kane?
00:11:50 [Speaker 1]
So there there have been a couple of, new formations kinda popping up out in West Texas.
00:12:00 [Speaker 1]
Hibernia's got a new play, so they're they're actually kinda being secretive to it.
00:12:05 [Speaker 1]
And, unfortunately, my my ear's not to the ground enough, but, you're starting to hear about, you know, stuff beyond kinda tier two and tier three acreage.
00:12:18 [Speaker 1]
You know?
00:12:18 [Speaker 1]
Let's go hit this with the big hammer.
00:12:20 [Speaker 1]
So it's gonna be fascinating to watch.
00:12:22 [Speaker 1]
And maybe what I'll do is go out to Twitter and and ask for intel on all that.
00:12:28 [Speaker 1]
Next week, I'll re...
00:12:29 [Speaker 1]
I'll report back with some names.
00:12:32 [Speaker 2]
But hypothetically, if you were if you were sitting in
00:12:35 [Speaker 1]
the chair today heading into the end of the year, we...
00:12:39 [Speaker 1]
We've had sustained risk premium in crude.
00:12:41 [Speaker 1]
You know, there's an inventory problem just generally or at least a perceived one.
00:12:47 [Speaker 1]
Private equity, are they thinking about it with their, with their assets today?
00:12:52 [Speaker 1]
So we actually talked about this, a few shows back.
00:12:57 [Speaker 1]
That's one of the cool things about AI and running all our show transcripts through it.
00:13:02 [Speaker 1]
I'll pull up the exact quote.
00:13:04 [Speaker 1]
But one of the things we talked about is when the war started and crude oil popped, the way private equity responded to it was not throwing more rigs at it.
00:13:14 [Speaker 1]
They sold.
00:13:15 [Speaker 1]
So we've seen tons of of sales.
00:13:20 [Speaker 1]
And I think if, I think if I'm sitting in that seat right now, everything I got is for sale cleared out, return a lot of cash to, the investors, and go back and sweep through them and ask for a 110% of it back for the next fund because the opportunity set is the greatest I've seen in forever.
00:13:44 [Speaker 2]
Any of
00:13:45 [Speaker 3]
I was talking to one of the foremost experts on LNG yesterday who who particularly has a deep understanding of The US market, and he was telling me that there is increased demand from internationals to invest into US LNG even today.
00:14:07 [Speaker 3]
And there's couple...
00:14:08 [Speaker 3]
You know, there's, what, six projects right now that are between, you know, FID and and and launch.
00:14:15 [Speaker 3]
It'll be interesting to see sort of what happens with money flows and to what projects get red lit.
00:14:23 [Speaker 3]
I think we should probably go a little bit deeper on this in the next few weeks.
00:14:30 [Speaker 1]
You know, that was Mark Myers on the, on the energy policy draft.
00:14:36 [Speaker 1]
Mark went number one and crushed it with a home run.
00:14:39 [Speaker 1]
He chose natural gas, for all the versatility, the fact that's today, it's not solar, it's not wind that's gonna need all this battery technology and stuff that that gas can do it today.
00:14:53 [Speaker 1]
And I think the world's just catching up with our esteemed leader, Mark.
00:14:59 [Speaker 2]
I I got the luck of the long straw on the draw and had the, had the first pick.
00:15:05 [Speaker 2]
It wasn't any...
00:15:06 [Speaker 1]
I I knew I I knew some people.
00:15:12 [Speaker 2]
But you you have seen...
00:15:13 [Speaker 2]
You know, I think I said at the time it's, you know, both an offensive and defensive strategic weapon, and I think that's true.
00:15:20 [Speaker 2]
We've...
00:15:22 [Speaker 2]
We think back to the winter of of twenty one, twenty two when there was a lot of of LNG that made its way to Europe in crisis and, you know, with storage levels where they are in Europe and having lowered their thresholds, I guess, legislatively or from an executive standpoint.
00:15:41 [Speaker 2]
So it's it's, you know, we're...
00:15:45 [Speaker 2]
I think we just recently recorded a 137 BCF a day.
00:15:49 [Speaker 2]
I remember back when EOG was publishing its, vintage decline charts for US natural gas and North American natural gas back in the early two thousands, and there was a belief that, you know, we could never grow again.
00:16:02 [Speaker 2]
And, of course, that was really before the gas sales took off starting with the Barnett.
00:16:08 [Speaker 2]
But here we are, you know, the dominant exporter, the dominant producer in in adding more.
00:16:15 [Speaker 2]
So, you know, if if if I'm an international player, I know where I can go to get gas molecules for long term LNG supply security.
00:16:23 [Speaker 2]
So, yeah, I I I think it all fits.
00:16:31 [Speaker 2]
Go ahead.
00:16:32 [Speaker 2]
I I wanna
00:16:33 [Speaker 1]
Go ahead.
00:16:34 [Speaker 1]
I
00:16:34 [Speaker 2]
wanna circle back.
00:16:36 [Speaker 2]
Any indication of what the, the new formations are?
00:16:39 [Speaker 2]
Because we've talked about something that Diamondback has, in particular, been talking about, and that is the, that is the extension into the Woodford Barnett.
00:16:49 [Speaker 1]
Yeah.
00:16:49 [Speaker 1]
That that that was...
00:16:50 [Speaker 1]
My fumbling around was the short way of saying I don't know.
00:16:55 [Speaker 2]
I can't say.
00:16:56 [Speaker 1]
Although...
00:16:57 [Speaker 1]
Oh, yeah.
00:16:57 [Speaker 1]
Exactly.
00:16:59 [Speaker 1]
I could tell you, but, you know...
00:17:01 [Speaker 1]
Yeah.
00:17:03 [Speaker 1]
No.
00:17:03 [Speaker 1]
It's, as I say at my age, it is not a storage problem.
00:17:08 [Speaker 1]
It is a retrieval problem.
00:17:10 [Speaker 1]
It's in there.
00:17:11 [Speaker 1]
It'll pop out.
00:17:12 [Speaker 1]
It's just not gonna do it on command here at the show unless I've got my notes in front of me.
00:17:18 [Speaker 1]
So
00:17:18 [Speaker 2]
Hey, Chuck.
00:17:19 [Speaker 1]
Thanks thanks for calling me out again on it, Mark.
00:17:23 [Speaker 3]
Armoss, hey.
00:17:24 [Speaker 3]
Mark took natural gas first in the draft.
00:17:27 [Speaker 3]
What should the second pick have been?
00:17:30 [Speaker 1]
So I'm gonna go with David Rams and Wood who drafted eight.
00:17:35 [Speaker 1]
And David Rams and Wood said, I don't care if I'm drafting first, last, whatever.
00:17:42 [Speaker 1]
I'm taking coal because coal is gonna be there.
00:17:45 [Speaker 1]
It's gonna burn.
00:17:46 [Speaker 1]
It's gonna generate electricity, and I'll always be warm.
00:17:51 [Speaker 1]
My lights will always be on.
00:17:53 [Speaker 1]
And quite frankly, as a Canadian, if we have global warming and the temperature rises five degrees, Canada might be bearable.
00:18:04 [Speaker 1]
So, yeah, I'm taking I'm taking coal.
00:18:07 [Speaker 2]
Alright.
00:18:07 [Speaker 2]
Your your your retrieval mechanism was syncing with mine because that's where I was going next was DRW talking about.
00:18:14 [Speaker 2]
Okay.
00:18:14 [Speaker 2]
We'll we'll take what everybody else considers a negative because it's so damn cold up here.
00:18:19 [Speaker 4]
We'll we'll take we'll take
00:18:21 [Speaker 2]
a little bit of your global warming
00:18:23 [Speaker 3]
to make sure that
00:18:24 [Speaker 2]
they're making more
00:18:25 [Speaker 3]
habitable.
00:18:26 [Speaker 3]
Nuclear, of course.
00:18:27 [Speaker 3]
And if I'm the Germans, they have so much lignite coal.
00:18:30 [Speaker 3]
I don't know why they wouldn't go deep coal, but, of course, they're confused by, the cleaner world.
00:18:38 [Speaker 3]
Right?
00:18:38 [Speaker 3]
Hey, d Alvarez '21 says, the early two thousands gas decline call was dead wrong.
00:18:44 [Speaker 3]
Which consensus energy call today is just as wrong?
00:18:48 [Speaker 3]
Great question.
00:18:55 [Speaker 1]
I'll I'll go first since Mark didn't, volunteer.
00:19:00 [Speaker 1]
The the consensus call that I think is wrong is...
00:19:11 [Speaker 1]
And I don't know if this is truly consensus, but there's a little bit of consensus that, you know, the world's the world's got enough oil for the fuse...
00:19:22 [Speaker 1]
Foreseeable future and that, you know, the forward curve's telling us it's 60 in year five.
00:19:31 [Speaker 1]
I I think we are gonna have a big huge spike in there because we do have that oil, but the innovation and the cash flow needed to do it.
00:19:42 [Speaker 1]
So I kinda see...
00:19:44 [Speaker 1]
I'm gonna say this right now.
00:19:46 [Speaker 1]
Within the next three years, four years, I see $250 oil.
00:19:51 [Speaker 1]
It's not gonna be sustainable because nothing cures high prices like high prices, but I do think it's gonna take that level, to get us really spending a lot more capital that we ultimately need.
00:20:06 [Speaker 2]
I'll go to the IEA.
00:20:13 [Speaker 1]
Alright.
00:20:13 [Speaker 1]
Had I known had I known you were gonna go all reliable, I would have gone back to, I need a Victoria's Secret model for my second wife.
00:20:21 [Speaker 1]
But go ahead, Mark.
00:20:23 [Speaker 2]
Well, if it's deemed consensus, the notion that we're going to be plateauing global oil demand anywhere, you know, they they backed off the...
00:20:32 [Speaker 2]
By 2030, and that was fossil fuels in general.
00:20:34 [Speaker 2]
But the consensus call that we're going to be, I think, backing off of of oil demand growth, anytime before 2050, by which time we'll have added another 2,000,000,000 people to the planet and in places that are characterized, specifically as developing nations.
00:20:58 [Speaker 2]
I, you know, I subscribe to the everyone wants to be energy rich.
00:21:03 [Speaker 2]
Everyone aspires to what Arjun calls the lucky 1,000,000,000 club.
00:21:08 [Speaker 2]
And I just think that we can't skip that step of the first rung on that ladder being hydrocarbon driven, particularly oil.
00:21:15 [Speaker 2]
So I do think we're going to continue to, kind of press forward with oil demand growth.
00:21:21 [Speaker 2]
I I don't think we're gonna see a plateau before 2050.
00:21:25 [Speaker 2]
OPEC doesn't believe it either.
00:21:27 [Speaker 2]
They're probably talking their book a little bit.
00:21:29 [Speaker 2]
But if you just look at the demographics and the dynamics of population growth and the aspiration to move out of energy poverty, oil plays a key part of that alongside natural gas.
00:21:43 [Speaker 1]
So, Kirk, before you, before you go, because you're gonna have to go too, I went on to my, my chief of staff agent that, learns me, has all our podcasts and stuff.
00:21:56 [Speaker 1]
And I said, give me a futuristic energy call that goes against consensus.
00:22:01 [Speaker 1]
The call LNG peaks before 2035 and not because demand dies, but because the molecule stops leaving The United States.
00:22:14 [Speaker 3]
That's a great So that's a great take, and we're gonna go to Nicole Parks in a second who asked a good follow-up question to that.
00:22:23 [Speaker 3]
But my take has been, I think the political consensus is that this is a short term problem with Hormuz or Hormuth in our case as well as the Russia Ukraine war creating all these stop gaps.
00:22:40 [Speaker 3]
I think the fundamental issues of you've got refining restriction globally, both in The US and in The Middle East and abroad, I think this is a sustained choke point that you're gonna see flutter out in the recession in the next three to five years.
00:23:00 [Speaker 3]
You're gonna have sustained high prices because of the supply chain choke points.
00:23:06 [Speaker 3]
This is not a quick fix.
00:23:08 [Speaker 3]
I don't care what the politicians are saying.
00:23:10 [Speaker 3]
So that...
00:23:11 [Speaker 3]
That's my read.
00:23:12 [Speaker 3]
I think we...
00:23:13 [Speaker 3]
You can you can build in long term high prices.
00:23:17 [Speaker 3]
Maybe oil will come up and down as it always does, but I think it is a sustained infrastructure issue.
00:23:24 [Speaker 3]
Now Nicole Parks makes a good point.
00:23:26 [Speaker 3]
Can Haynesville keep up if The US LNG exports and AI data centers both want the same molecules?
00:23:37 [Speaker 1]
Bunch of, a bunch of redneck oil and gas guys can keep up with any about of demand.
00:23:43 [Speaker 1]
It's whether our politicians will allow us to do it.
00:23:46 [Speaker 1]
You know?
00:23:47 [Speaker 1]
Left to our own devices, we can do it in Texas because we're an island unto ourselves, and we don't have to mess with FERC building, pipelines around.
00:23:59 [Speaker 1]
But, you know, Haynesville, Texas requires FERC approval, and god knows what those numb nuts are doing on any given day.
00:24:08 [Speaker 1]
So, yeah, oil and gas can deliver it, deliver it smoothly.
00:24:11 [Speaker 1]
It all comes down to our politicians.
00:24:15 [Speaker 3]
You know, this is actually a good question.
00:24:16 [Speaker 3]
I laughed at it when I first read it, but then I'm like, oh, that's a good question.
00:24:21 [Speaker 3]
Jen Castillo.
00:24:22 [Speaker 3]
Does EV adoption in China change the demand growth math, or is it already priced at?
00:24:32 [Speaker 1]
China always waits to use their resources.
00:24:36 [Speaker 1]
Right?
00:24:37 [Speaker 1]
I mean, that's the that.
00:24:38 [Speaker 1]
That's the history of China.
00:24:40 [Speaker 1]
So sucking LNG out of the market, to fuel their needs.
00:24:46 [Speaker 1]
Now they've also putting in a lot of solar, and there are people that'll tell you that solar and batteries are ultimately gonna gonna be the cheapest way to to, to generate electricity.
00:25:00 [Speaker 1]
But, at the end of the day, my answer to her is great question.
00:25:06 [Speaker 1]
I have no freaking idea.
00:25:10 [Speaker 3]
Well, to me, all it...
00:25:11 [Speaker 3]
I mean, if I'm thinking China for a second, the EV adoption is necessary because they are building as cheap energy as possible.
00:25:20 [Speaker 3]
I mean, all those...
00:25:22 [Speaker 3]
You know, they're they're they're cranking out the coal plants one after another for cheap base load.
00:25:29 [Speaker 3]
I think EV is almost necessary because they need to keep overall energy prices low in country so they can continue to be a supplier to the world.
00:25:39 [Speaker 3]
But that's a great question.
00:25:41 [Speaker 3]
We should probably follow that.
00:25:42 [Speaker 3]
Clyde will do it for us.
00:25:44 [Speaker 3]
Great question.
00:25:46 [Speaker 1]
Well, one other one other point to follow on with what you're saying is I think EV adoption is necessary because at the end of the day, the way the communist party in China continues to rule, believe it or not, is they are somewhat customer friendly.
00:26:04 [Speaker 1]
I mean, back in the day, you had Tiananmen Square, etcetera.
00:26:09 [Speaker 1]
Now when stuff pops up, they're responding to their populace more.
00:26:13 [Speaker 1]
So I do think they have to keep advancing the status of, of people's lives or else the communist party has real problems.
00:26:22 [Speaker 3]
And I will say as a...
00:26:24 [Speaker 3]
When I was last in Beijing, I really enjoyed them monitoring my phones, and they did a really good job of keeping me up to date of, like, did I need to get back to anybody?
00:26:36 [Speaker 3]
It was awesome.
00:26:37 [Speaker 3]
So good point, Chuck.
00:26:39 [Speaker 2]
Did you need to get back to your zone of surveillance?
00:26:42 [Speaker 3]
That's right.
00:26:43 [Speaker 3]
That's right.
00:26:43 [Speaker 2]
I...
00:26:44 [Speaker 2]
Look.
00:26:44 [Speaker 2]
I By
00:26:44 [Speaker 3]
the way, still, DeepSeek just recently changed their prices.
00:26:49 [Speaker 3]
So even DeepSeek demands going up, I've been watching their API prices.
00:26:54 [Speaker 3]
It's interesting because, you know, China AI company DeepSeek has been sort of just picking off everybody that just wants AI for cheap, and they're getting it.
00:27:05 [Speaker 3]
But there is security concerns, but their pricing is even going up.
00:27:10 [Speaker 3]
So I'm I'm gonna do more investigative journalism.
00:27:14 [Speaker 3]
I'm not a journalist, but I'm gonna investigate it.
00:27:17 [Speaker 3]
And I'm gonna report back because that's a new trend, and I'm trying to figure out what's driving it besides everybody else.
00:27:23 [Speaker 3]
I mean, Claude, token prices are just, like, we should probably...
00:27:28 [Speaker 3]
You know what?
00:27:29 [Speaker 3]
Jacob, we need to have the WTI, the Brent, and token pricing on the screen while we're broadcasting.
00:27:40 [Speaker 1]
Can we get a scroll that?
00:27:41 [Speaker 1]
A scroll
00:27:42 [Speaker 3]
across the bottom?
00:27:43 [Speaker 3]
Yeah.
00:27:44 [Speaker 3]
Jacob, come in for a second and tell everybody that we can do this.
00:27:48 [Speaker 1]
Chuck Yates talks token spike right there.
00:27:51 [Speaker 4]
Okay.
00:27:52 [Speaker 4]
So
00:27:52 [Speaker 3]
this is a great tool.
00:27:53 [Speaker 3]
Can.
00:27:54 [Speaker 3]
We can do that.
00:27:55 [Speaker 4]
So who who was the
00:27:56 [Speaker 1]
press secretary that got run off, under Trump, the first one, the investment guy?
00:28:03 [Speaker 1]
Blonde?
00:28:03 [Speaker 1]
Oh, we No.
00:28:04 [Speaker 1]
No.
00:28:05 [Speaker 1]
Back in the day, the the dude has dark hair.
00:28:08 [Speaker 1]
I'm blanking on his name.
00:28:09 [Speaker 1]
Anyways Scaramucci?
00:28:11 [Speaker 1]
Scaramucci.
00:28:12 [Speaker 1]
So he does this big investor conference out in LA.
00:28:15 [Speaker 1]
It's...
00:28:16 [Speaker 1]
In Las Vegas.
00:28:17 [Speaker 1]
Glitzy thing.
00:28:19 [Speaker 1]
So I was speaking at it one time.
00:28:21 [Speaker 1]
Literally, I went up right before Kobe Bryant, and then I was right after pick somebody else big, you know, Nick Saban or whatever, why I was there.
00:28:34 [Speaker 1]
And I was on a panel talking about oil prices and gold prices into the future.
00:28:40 [Speaker 1]
And, anyway, it's like a Goldman Sachs commodities expert.
00:28:46 [Speaker 1]
It's Austin Goolsby who was, you know, big economist, the, chairman of some committee under Obama, and me.
00:28:56 [Speaker 1]
And they came about, and I'd told them, hey.
00:28:59 [Speaker 1]
I know oil, but I don't know gold.
00:29:00 [Speaker 1]
So anyway, they asked the question.
00:29:03 [Speaker 1]
They said, what are gold prices at the end of the year?
00:29:05 [Speaker 1]
It's $1,200 an ounce right now.
00:29:08 [Speaker 1]
And the commodity person from Goldman says, well, we see demand going up, so we see $13.50 by the end of the year.
00:29:15 [Speaker 1]
Austin Goolsbee goes, man, I'm an economist.
00:29:18 [Speaker 1]
If the price is 1,200 today, in the future, it's 1,200 because it's perfectly priced.
00:29:23 [Speaker 1]
And they go, Chuck, what do you think?
00:29:25 [Speaker 1]
And I said, well, it's gonna be $1,800 an ounce because the three Yates daughters are all getting their ears pierced.
00:29:33 [Speaker 1]
So there's gonna be a run on gold in Houston, Texas as I buy earrings.
00:29:38 [Speaker 1]
Everybody laughed, thought it was really funny.
00:29:42 [Speaker 1]
Yahoo Finance ran with that story.
00:29:44 [Speaker 1]
Yates calls for 1,800, dollar gold, and, I got in trouble
00:29:52 [Speaker 4]
with with...
00:29:53 [Speaker 4]
I got
00:29:54 [Speaker 1]
in trouble with, the the the the home office on that one.
00:29:58 [Speaker 1]
Stop making gold forecasts.
00:30:01 [Speaker 3]
Real quick.
00:30:02 [Speaker 3]
If you're watching and you haven't joined Collide yet, it's a free online community for oil and gas professionals.
00:30:10 [Speaker 3]
Apply at collide.io/community.
00:30:16 [Speaker 3]
When applying, it'll ask how you heard about us.
00:30:18 [Speaker 3]
Pick other and type BDE 26.
00:30:22 [Speaker 3]
Again, BDE 26, and we'll send you enough Watts for a free T shirt.
00:30:29 [Speaker 3]
Watts?
00:30:30 [Speaker 3]
What are they?
00:30:31 [Speaker 3]
They're Clyde's in house currency.
00:30:33 [Speaker 3]
You can't buy them, you can earn them, and you can spend them in the doghouse on merchant gear.
00:30:39 [Speaker 3]
Again, that's code BDE 26.
00:30:45 [Speaker 3]
So Chuck and Mark, back to the show.
00:30:47 [Speaker 1]
So so two two things I'll add to that.
00:30:50 [Speaker 1]
Number one, the most expensive item in the doghouse costs 69,420 watts is dinner with me at Uchi.
00:31:01 [Speaker 1]
I've done it twice.
00:31:02 [Speaker 1]
Two people have purchased that.
00:31:04 [Speaker 1]
So happy to do it.
00:31:05 [Speaker 1]
We have a great time.
00:31:06 [Speaker 1]
The second thing, I will go on the record that at at some point, if BDE twenty six leads to a thousand people joining collide, and we'll keep track of this, we will make Colin McClellan smoke the pound of weed right here on BDE.
00:31:29 [Speaker 3]
I mean, I'm gonna have a cigar in my hand if we're
00:31:32 [Speaker 4]
doing that.
00:31:32 [Speaker 3]
So I'm in.
00:31:34 [Speaker 3]
So
00:31:36 [Speaker 2]
Dan Pickering just posted talking about crude.
00:31:39 [Speaker 2]
There's been some up and down price action today as we talked about earlier.
00:31:45 [Speaker 2]
I find this particularly illuminating.
00:31:48 [Speaker 2]
What a world we live in when this type of thing moves global crude oil markets.
00:31:53 [Speaker 2]
Quote, social media reporting, social media reports citing Israeli press say a new Pakistani proposal has received US approval in preliminaries, acceptance from Iran.
00:32:06 [Speaker 2]
And then Dan quips, what's next?
00:32:08 [Speaker 2]
Chicken entrail interpretations?
00:32:14 [Speaker 2]
There's a guy pulling his hair out
00:32:16 [Speaker 1]
in front of...
00:32:16 [Speaker 1]
Wait.
00:32:18 [Speaker 1]
Wow.
00:32:18 [Speaker 1]
You just you just threw a pick his ball to joke out?
00:32:23 [Speaker 1]
Well played, Mark.
00:32:24 [Speaker 2]
Oh, yeah.
00:32:25 [Speaker 1]
Yeah.
00:32:25 [Speaker 1]
I
00:32:25 [Speaker 3]
don't know what you're saying.
00:32:26 [Speaker 1]
That.
00:32:27 [Speaker 1]
Jacob, clip that and make sure we tweet that one out.
00:32:31 [Speaker 1]
Alright.
00:32:32 [Speaker 1]
What's next, Mark?
00:32:33 [Speaker 2]
Speaking of clips, Jacob, let's, let's do the Trump Zelensky back and forth, and then we'll react to it.
00:32:50 [Speaker 4]
Facing pretty difficult midterm elections.
00:32:52 [Speaker 4]
His personal popularity is very low.
00:32:54 [Speaker 4]
Diesel prices in The US are very high, and the war that he started in The Middle East is not going the way he wants it.
00:33:01 [Speaker 4]
Do you think you are being treated as a scapegoat for his own problems?
00:33:21 [Speaker 1]
This is my answer.
00:33:23 [Speaker 1]
Thank you so much.
00:33:24 [Speaker 1]
Thank you.
00:33:24 [Speaker 1]
So much.
00:33:30 [Speaker 2]
Now play the one that set all that off.
00:33:42 [Speaker 5]
Stop.
00:33:43 [Speaker 5]
Do whatever you want, but don't hit the diesel fuel because there's a big problem, a big shortage.
00:33:48 [Speaker 5]
And what does he do?
00:33:49 [Speaker 5]
He goes and hits the diesel fuel.
00:33:50 [Speaker 5]
He can do whatever he wants, but he can't do that because we have a world problem.
00:33:56 [Speaker 5]
And the problem is caused by the lack of refineries for diesel fuel.
00:34:01 [Speaker 5]
So what does he do?
00:34:02 [Speaker 5]
He goes and hits refineries.
00:34:04 [Speaker 5]
And I said to him, do what you want.
00:34:06 [Speaker 5]
Don't hit refineries.
00:34:07 [Speaker 5]
There's plenty of targets.
00:34:09 [Speaker 5]
Don't hit refineries.
00:34:09 [Speaker 5]
And he went out and he hit.
00:34:11 [Speaker 5]
And he's not gonna affect our farmers, and he's not gonna affect our ranchers, and he's not gonna affect the rest of the world.
00:34:18 [Speaker 5]
So, we...
00:34:19 [Speaker 5]
He better damn well stop.
00:34:21 [Speaker 5]
He...
00:34:25 [Speaker 2]
What did we talk about a few weeks ago?
00:34:31 [Speaker 2]
These erstwhile energy, target truces that were immediately met with attacks in the aftermath of, you know, hope that...
00:34:43 [Speaker 2]
It was kinda kinda hands off refineries and diesel fuel production.
00:34:50 [Speaker 2]
Zelensky's...
00:34:51 [Speaker 2]
Zelensky knows he's got leverage.
00:34:52 [Speaker 2]
He's got extreme leverage in front of the US midterms, and, you know, he's playing the diesel card because he knows that not only The US, but Europe, Western Europe, and the European Union and The UK are pissed off about where diesel prices currently are.
00:35:09 [Speaker 2]
And so he's got, you know, he's got that leverage, and he's using it.
00:35:13 [Speaker 2]
And and I don't, you know, I I don't think it stops.
00:35:17 [Speaker 3]
You know, what's interesting is Ukraine's refinery strikes are really the one asymmetric weapon that's actually working.
00:35:27 [Speaker 3]
And, you know, they've hit enough refineries to create a domestic shortage.
00:35:33 [Speaker 3]
And now, you know, Trump is leaning on on Zelensky to stop the one campaign that's actually crippling the Russian economy.
00:35:42 [Speaker 3]
So energy policy is driving war policy, not the other way around.
00:35:47 [Speaker 3]
I mean, it's actually...
00:35:48 [Speaker 3]
Zelensky, for all his faults, it's actually working his strategy.
00:35:54 [Speaker 3]
And, you know, Trump is just trying to blame anybody because midterms are coming up.
00:35:59 [Speaker 3]
Diesel prices are really high, and we have an issue.
00:36:04 [Speaker 1]
So my favorite political science professor, the greatest teacher in my life, Gilbert Cuthbertson, used to always talk about things that if you were a conservative and a liberal was making the argument, you didn't attack from the right and make your argument because that just turns into he said, she said screaming at each other.
00:36:26 [Speaker 1]
You always take their position to the far extreme, and you attack them from the left.
00:36:34 [Speaker 1]
And there are some great examples he would give on this.
00:36:38 [Speaker 1]
So president Trump, stop stop with this, you know, badgering at Zelensky and, you know, putting yourself in the position to be called Putin's puppet.
00:36:52 [Speaker 1]
Go to the left.
00:36:53 [Speaker 1]
Go to him and say, yes.
00:36:56 [Speaker 1]
Let's attack all the refineries and let's rebuild them here in America.
00:37:00 [Speaker 1]
Are you with me, Democratic party?
00:37:03 [Speaker 1]
Texas, you have my permission.
00:37:05 [Speaker 1]
No EPA, thirty year ban, on lawsuits and income taxes and all that.
00:37:12 [Speaker 1]
We're just gonna build it all here.
00:37:14 [Speaker 1]
Right?
00:37:14 [Speaker 1]
Let's turn Zelensky loose to go take out all of Russia because we hate Putin.
00:37:21 [Speaker 1]
Attack from the left, and you'll get, you know, Pelosi and all the debt...
00:37:26 [Speaker 1]
Schumer and
00:37:27 [Speaker 2]
all the democrats.
00:37:29 [Speaker 2]
We don't wanna build anything here.
00:37:32 [Speaker 1]
Put them...
00:37:32 [Speaker 1]
Box them into the corner.
00:37:34 [Speaker 1]
Come from the left.
00:37:35 [Speaker 3]
I mean, Chuck, we've talked about this.
00:37:37 [Speaker 3]
You know, economics one zero one says, if there's an opportunity to make a lot of money, someone's gonna put money in.
00:37:42 [Speaker 3]
So the fact is it takes decades to build refineries.
00:37:47 [Speaker 3]
A couple questions, and then I'm gonna get in some some interesting data.
00:37:52 [Speaker 3]
Tara Wynn 22 says, should Ukraine trade a refinery strike pause for Patriot interceptors or keep its only working leverage?
00:38:01 [Speaker 1]
Oh, that's a good question.
00:38:04 [Speaker 1]
That's the, you know, I'm still...
00:38:08 [Speaker 1]
I don't wanna be called a Putin apologist.
00:38:11 [Speaker 1]
I still am worried about escalating against somebody that has that many nuclear weapons pointed against me.
00:38:18 [Speaker 1]
And I'm also very worried about a war where literally a bunch of 18 year olds are dying who don't really give a shit about it.
00:38:29 [Speaker 1]
But that's an interesting question.
00:38:32 [Speaker 1]
I'll leave that to smarter minds and people that went to the, military academies to maybe answer.
00:38:38 [Speaker 3]
And then...
00:38:39 [Speaker 3]
And and to add on top of that, Mark, you could jump in.
00:38:42 [Speaker 3]
If Zelensky keeps hitting refineries through the midterms, how high can US diesel go?
00:38:46 [Speaker 3]
That's from Katie...
00:38:49 [Speaker 3]
K Dunlevy.
00:38:51 [Speaker 3]
K Dunlevy.
00:38:53 [Speaker 2]
I mean, we talked about we talked about $78 diesel and, you know, what what the competing demands in the distillate complex are with harvest season with, Northeast heating oil.
00:39:08 [Speaker 2]
So, you know, I didn't...
00:39:10 [Speaker 2]
I I certainly don't think that, you know, additional strikes are not gonna be helpful to that.
00:39:15 [Speaker 2]
And does it raise the probability that...
00:39:17 [Speaker 2]
You know, tell me what the weather's going to be as well, but, are we gonna see $7 diesel?
00:39:24 [Speaker 2]
8 feels a little bit of a stretch, but, you know, stranger things have happened.
00:39:28 [Speaker 2]
I don't I don't know how much capacity there is that's reachable, with Ukrainian drones and and their other armaments.
00:39:35 [Speaker 2]
But, yeah, taking taking more production capacity off at the margin is, I think, going to have an outsized effect to the upside.
00:39:44 [Speaker 3]
Yeah.
00:39:44 [Speaker 3]
And and and what's interesting...
00:39:46 [Speaker 3]
And going back to my conversation on LNG, yesterday, EU storage is around 74%, which sounds like a number, but it's the lowest for this date since record started in 2011.
00:40:00 [Speaker 3]
It's 16 points below normal.
00:40:03 [Speaker 3]
The EU lowered its own target from 90% to 80% because it knew it could not hit 90%.
00:40:09 [Speaker 3]
And Qatari LNG, which used to be a backstop, is stuck behind Hormuz.
00:40:15 [Speaker 3]
So Europe's going into winter with less gas, higher prices, fewer options than any year on record.
00:40:22 [Speaker 3]
And and the winner in the segment is The US LNG.
00:40:25 [Speaker 3]
Qatar's offline.
00:40:27 [Speaker 3]
Europe's at 74%.
00:40:30 [Speaker 3]
TTF is at €89.
00:40:32 [Speaker 3]
Every flexible US cargo is in a bidding war.
00:40:36 [Speaker 3]
Cheniere, Venture Global, the traders, the tighter Europe gets, the wider the arbitrage for Gulf Coast molecules.
00:40:50 [Speaker 2]
Yeah.
00:40:50 [Speaker 2]
And the...
00:40:51 [Speaker 2]
And and and the more at a disadvantage, again, assuming cold snaps the global South finds itself in because Europe will outbid will outbid, countries like Pakistan for available molecules that can be rerouted, to the continent or to The UK.
00:41:10 [Speaker 1]
And I hate to sound like a broken record because I feel like I say this every time, but, hey, you don't wanna build energy infrastructure?
00:41:18 [Speaker 1]
Guess what?
00:41:19 [Speaker 1]
Who who suffers?
00:41:21 [Speaker 1]
It's the poor people.
00:41:23 [Speaker 1]
So don't don't feign your, oh, we wanna help the poor and then deny them energy because, Mark, you're right.
00:41:31 [Speaker 1]
It's gonna be a bidding war.
00:41:32 [Speaker 1]
And guess what?
00:41:33 [Speaker 1]
Europe will win.
00:41:34 [Speaker 1]
They got money.
00:41:35 [Speaker 1]
US will win.
00:41:36 [Speaker 1]
We got money.
00:41:37 [Speaker 1]
Pakistan loses.
00:41:39 [Speaker 1]
And, so at the
00:41:40 [Speaker 2]
end of the day just borrow more.
00:41:42 [Speaker 1]
Yeah.
00:41:43 [Speaker 1]
Exactly.
00:41:44 [Speaker 3]
Not to be a cynic here, but whenever I see people that are for the poor, they're usually profiting off the poor.
00:41:52 [Speaker 3]
I mean, it's just kinda how it works.
00:41:55 [Speaker 3]
But...
00:41:55 [Speaker 3]
Hey.
00:41:56 [Speaker 3]
So one of the the, one of our, announcers, our, listeners weighed in, and this is actually for you, Mark.
00:42:05 [Speaker 3]
They're saying like, hey.
00:42:06 [Speaker 3]
We love looking at the backgrounds.
00:42:09 [Speaker 3]
Chuck has the the alcohol plus that really cool surfer.
00:42:13 [Speaker 3]
This is Nantucket behind me.
00:42:15 [Speaker 3]
Mark, we vote for you to put a hull of shame behind you.
00:42:21 [Speaker 3]
So every A and M record that they broke on the bad side, every Astros loss on the bad side, you need to have photos of all the shame of sports.
00:42:34 [Speaker 3]
I would love it.
00:42:35 [Speaker 3]
So
00:42:35 [Speaker 2]
Well well, definitely.
00:42:36 [Speaker 2]
That.
00:42:37 [Speaker 1]
So that that message came in from Nantucketsurferboy@Gmail.com?
00:42:45 [Speaker 3]
That's right.
00:42:48 [Speaker 3]
Oh, by the way, Chuck, you're at 200,000 viewers.
00:42:52 [Speaker 3]
That's amazing.
00:42:53 [Speaker 1]
Really?
00:42:54 [Speaker 2]
So, Kirk, would either one of us make the playoffs if...
00:42:57 [Speaker 2]
Well, I know we wouldn't, but if if the expansion to 24 teams...
00:43:02 [Speaker 2]
And as Nick Nick Saban pointedly said, there's not 24 there's not 24 teams in college football that have a a chance at at winning the national championship.
00:43:13 [Speaker 2]
Would Texas...
00:43:14 [Speaker 2]
Would would Texas make it?
00:43:16 [Speaker 3]
I love how the head coach of Florida after the game beating Texas says that we're still awful.
00:43:24 [Speaker 3]
We we won, which is which is good, but we're still a terrible team.
00:43:29 [Speaker 3]
No.
00:43:29 [Speaker 3]
We're not gonna make the playoffs.
00:43:31 [Speaker 3]
There's nothing that...
00:43:33 [Speaker 3]
There's nothing about Sark right now that is taking any note.
00:43:38 [Speaker 3]
When you're the head coach of a big team like Texas, you can't be offensive coordinator.
00:43:44 [Speaker 3]
And I've seen some really good data that Quinn Ewers was the scapegoat, but Quinn Ewers suffered sort of the same.
00:43:51 [Speaker 3]
I I saw Sarp being interviewed, and and he's like, does does Arch...
00:43:56 [Speaker 3]
And they actually asked Arch as well, like, do you have any ability to change the play at the line of scrimmage?
00:44:01 [Speaker 3]
And he's like...
00:44:02 [Speaker 3]
He kinda laughed like, no.
00:44:04 [Speaker 3]
Sark doesn't like giving his quarterbacks room, and Sark is too busy to really see the full game as the...
00:44:11 [Speaker 3]
As only offensive coordinator.
00:44:14 [Speaker 3]
So I don't think UT is gonna make playoffs.
00:44:16 [Speaker 3]
They're going in...
00:44:17 [Speaker 3]
I mean, Ole Miss is gonna...
00:44:18 [Speaker 3]
I mean, let's see.
00:44:20 [Speaker 3]
We're going to Ole Miss.
00:44:21 [Speaker 3]
We're going to LSU.
00:44:22 [Speaker 3]
It's gonna be a bloodbath.
00:44:24 [Speaker 3]
This this season's gonna be a learning season.
00:44:27 [Speaker 1]
So I hate to play in a, football quarterback, but, you know, Arch Manning is not a drop back, go through your progressions type quarterback.
00:44:38 [Speaker 1]
He needs to be running around, improvising plays, that sort of stuff.
00:44:44 [Speaker 1]
And he just, man, he just...
00:44:46 [Speaker 1]
He looks like, you know, square peg round hole, in that offense, and that ultimately comes back on on, the head coach.
00:44:58 [Speaker 3]
Well put, Chuck.
00:44:59 [Speaker 3]
Hey.
00:44:59 [Speaker 3]
Energy calendar, what would it take for the Phillips sixty six and Valero refineries in California to restart?
00:45:07 [Speaker 3]
How much diesel can they produce combined?
00:45:11 [Speaker 3]
They were roughly 400,000 BPD capacity.
00:45:15 [Speaker 3]
Well, good luck.
00:45:17 [Speaker 3]
But Well, as we Chuck, Mark, what do you think?
00:45:19 [Speaker 2]
As we talked about...
00:45:20 [Speaker 2]
Or there was some rumor floating out around a couple of weeks ago around Benicia, which is up in the Bay Area, about the use of the Defense Production Act, to to force a restart of those facilities.
00:45:33 [Speaker 2]
And all these are recently shut or mothballed refineries.
00:45:38 [Speaker 2]
I I...
00:45:39 [Speaker 2]
You know, we we need, nineties random one to help us with, you know, what what that would entail from, you know, a time and a maintenance standpoint and certainly a labor force standpoint.
00:45:51 [Speaker 2]
Has...
00:45:51 [Speaker 2]
You know, have have the labor forces from those refineries scattered.
00:45:55 [Speaker 2]
You know, you get a lot of experience scattered, you know, hopefully, have found other jobs or we're at a time in their lives where they could retire.
00:46:03 [Speaker 2]
But, yeah, I...
00:46:05 [Speaker 2]
You you you could in an extreme pinch, I think, get it done under the Defense Production Act.
00:46:10 [Speaker 1]
Well, all these things that we keep talking about come down to to politics.
00:46:15 [Speaker 1]
Steve Hilton wins.
00:46:16 [Speaker 1]
I bet he finds a way to do it.
00:46:18 [Speaker 1]
You know?
00:46:19 [Speaker 1]
Steve Hilton loses.
00:46:21 [Speaker 1]
California quit bitching about your fuel prices.
00:46:24 [Speaker 1]
I mean, it's that simple, guys.
00:46:27 [Speaker 3]
That is...
00:46:28 [Speaker 3]
Hey.
00:46:28 [Speaker 3]
I'm going back to football for a second.
00:46:30 [Speaker 3]
Bethany Cole four says, Kirk, what's more volatile right now, Brent prices or your mood every Saturday night?
00:46:38 [Speaker 3]
My mood on Saturday night is absolutely volatile, but the fact that I was up till midnight last night watching game films and non Longhorns tearing apart the Longhorn offense.
00:46:52 [Speaker 3]
I just have to, like, watch every analyst, every game film tear apart to make sense of it.
00:46:59 [Speaker 3]
So I'm still volatile.
00:47:01 [Speaker 3]
So great.
00:47:02 [Speaker 3]
Thank you, Bethany.
00:47:03 [Speaker 3]
I really appreciate that.
00:47:04 [Speaker 3]
If you're Longhorn and you're an Arch fan, why don't you write into the notes, and tell us?
00:47:10 [Speaker 3]
But, anyway
00:47:13 [Speaker 1]
No.
00:47:13 [Speaker 1]
So Good question.
00:47:14 [Speaker 1]
Beauty...
00:47:15 [Speaker 1]
The beauty is you've achieved all your Longhorns have achieved with the entire taxing authority of the state of Texas behind you.
00:47:25 [Speaker 1]
So that makes it a little worse.
00:47:27 [Speaker 1]
My rice is all sucking.
00:47:28 [Speaker 1]
You know?
00:47:29 [Speaker 1]
We don't have we don't have that.
00:47:31 [Speaker 3]
But I'm gonna do a fletch right now.
00:47:33 [Speaker 3]
I took my sweet wife who is an alumnus...
00:47:37 [Speaker 3]
Alumni?
00:47:37 [Speaker 3]
Alumnus?
00:47:38 [Speaker 3]
Alumnus of the Southern Methodist University.
00:47:41 [Speaker 3]
And and last Saturday, I was like, we're gonna go tailgate, and we're gonna go to the game.
00:47:46 [Speaker 3]
And I am saying, as someone that grew up in Houston and went to almost every Longhorn game, there is nothing more posh than going to SMU and having a mambo taxi and and and wandering into the game to watch them beat UVA, it was outstanding.
00:48:08 [Speaker 3]
And then when they score, they run that little pony, Paruna, down the field.
00:48:14 [Speaker 3]
I'm like, I've never...
00:48:15 [Speaker 3]
I've missed, like, what it's like to live in luxury, and I just discovered it.
00:48:21 [Speaker 3]
So if you guys want a really good experience, go to SMU and watch football.
00:48:26 [Speaker 3]
It's amazing.
00:48:27 [Speaker 1]
So the one correction I have on your take, Kirk, while you're doing that is your hand gestures of this doesn't work.
00:48:34 [Speaker 1]
You need to be doing this.
00:48:36 [Speaker 1]
You know?
00:48:37 [Speaker 1]
Get the pinky up while you hold the glass.
00:48:40 [Speaker 1]
There you go.
00:48:42 [Speaker 3]
I'm gonna I just want you to fit in.
00:48:43 [Speaker 4]
Jake.
00:48:44 [Speaker 4]
I I want you to send
00:48:45 [Speaker 2]
it in.
00:48:45 [Speaker 3]
Photo, and Jacob Jacob...
00:48:46 [Speaker 3]
Jacob's actually gonna post it of of my guy that sat next to me.
00:48:50 [Speaker 3]
He's not necessarily the typical SMU guy, but he he actually had better chain chain work than you did you did, Chuck.
00:48:58 [Speaker 3]
So Really?
00:48:59 [Speaker 3]
I'm gonna send it to you.
00:49:00 [Speaker 1]
Out out blinging me on this?
00:49:02 [Speaker 3]
Well, he had a giant, diamond crusted gold, razor blade.
00:49:08 [Speaker 3]
And I was like, that's pretty strong.
00:49:10 [Speaker 3]
It's pretty strong.
00:49:11 [Speaker 3]
So I'm seeing a Jacob now, and he'll post it
00:49:13 [Speaker 2]
in a second.
00:49:13 [Speaker 1]
Wow.
00:49:14 [Speaker 1]
That is strong.
00:49:17 [Speaker 2]
Well, it is, it is early voting season.
00:49:22 [Speaker 2]
We're in the midst of a very contentious and friction filled and lively election season.
00:49:30 [Speaker 2]
Can't can't leave the show without talking about data centers.
00:49:33 [Speaker 2]
Jacob, you got something from across the pond that involves Google.
00:49:46 [Speaker 4]
You're absolutely right.
00:49:48 [Speaker 4]
I shouldn't have destroyed those 740 acres of forest in Finland.
00:49:51 [Speaker 4]
That was my mistake.
00:49:52 [Speaker 4]
Google was busy building out data centers over in the Nordic country, and that's now been put to a halt after it was discovered that they were recklessly chopping down them trees.
00:50:01 [Speaker 4]
Google said that they've fallen short of their own high standards and that they acted in good faith and that they'll be working to do tree planting across the nation to help make up for it.
00:50:10 [Speaker 4]
But it's not that they weren't allowed to cut down those pre paper polls, but rather that the Finnish government hadn't yet said that they could.
00:50:17 [Speaker 4]
You're absol
00:50:23 [Speaker 2]
So they've they've halted a data center project in Finland after mowing down a 140 hectares, which I guess is 740 acres of timberland.
00:50:36 [Speaker 2]
So, you know, we're in the midst of all kinds of moratoriums and pauses here in Texas.
00:50:42 [Speaker 2]
Just...
00:50:43 [Speaker 2]
What's your take on this, Kirk?
00:50:48 [Speaker 3]
Well, interesting is permitting is the new interconnection queue.
00:50:52 [Speaker 3]
Like, in The US, it's binding constraint on data centers as power, and the Nordics' process.
00:50:59 [Speaker 3]
I mean, I don't know which one's easier to fix, but as we know, regulatorily, in Texas, and we've been talking about this, is you're seeing this entire move to behind the meter.
00:51:10 [Speaker 3]
Just trying to bypass the TCEQ and regulatory.
00:51:14 [Speaker 3]
So, I mean, this to me is a European move at its finest, and I think it'll be interesting to watch because I'm sort of on the on the on the pro side of AI, and, like, if you can't beat them, be ahead of everybody else.
00:51:31 [Speaker 3]
I think this is gonna put Europe behind.
00:51:33 [Speaker 3]
And right now, Europe is dealing with rioting and...
00:51:36 [Speaker 3]
I mean, they've got issues.
00:51:38 [Speaker 3]
Slowing down technical growth is is a challenge, and I think it's it's gonna be a problem to watch.
00:51:44 [Speaker 3]
And we're gonna probably report on a on a ongoing...
00:51:48 [Speaker 3]
On on on every every week.
00:51:52 [Speaker 1]
Yeah.
00:51:52 [Speaker 1]
I, I am a little hesitant to speak bad of the Finnish people because my daughter's best friend, grandmother lives in Helsinki, and Sofia was over there visiting.
00:52:08 [Speaker 1]
And so Kelly's like, dad, can we go see Sofia in Helsinki?
00:52:13 [Speaker 1]
It was one of the best cities I've ever been to.
00:52:15 [Speaker 1]
I mean, it was so clean.
00:52:17 [Speaker 1]
80% of the population speaks English and doesn't mind speaking English.
00:52:23 [Speaker 1]
It's not like the French who, you know, look down their nose when you, ask them something in English.
00:52:29 [Speaker 1]
They're the land of my people, blonde hair, blue eyes everywhere, so I absolutely adore Finland.
00:52:37 [Speaker 1]
That being said, this is the most European thing of all time.
00:52:40 [Speaker 1]
Well, of course, you can have a data center.
00:52:42 [Speaker 1]
Oh, you didn't say that you wanted trees or gas or a permit.
00:52:47 [Speaker 1]
I'm so sorry.
00:52:48 [Speaker 1]
You know?
00:52:48 [Speaker 1]
I mean, just it feels just so incredibly European on that, that Alright.
00:52:54 [Speaker 3]
Movie movie trivia as in Helsinki, Sweden, Finland.
00:53:01 [Speaker 3]
What movie quote...
00:53:01 [Speaker 3]
What what what movie is that from?
00:53:04 [Speaker 1]
Dude, I don't even know.
00:53:06 [Speaker 3]
Dude, that's classic Die Hard.
00:53:08 [Speaker 3]
Come on, guys.
00:53:10 [Speaker 1]
Oh, shoot.
00:53:11 [Speaker 1]
Which is It's
00:53:12 [Speaker 2]
not it's not Christmas yet.
00:53:13 [Speaker 2]
It's not time to
00:53:14 [Speaker 1]
It is my favorite it is my favorite Christmas movie.
00:53:18 [Speaker 3]
Alright.
00:53:18 [Speaker 3]
Rachel Dunn seven says, would Google rather fight Finnish permitting or ERCOT's interconnection queue for its next data center?
00:53:25 [Speaker 3]
How?
00:53:26 [Speaker 3]
Someone's listening.
00:53:28 [Speaker 1]
Wow.
00:53:29 [Speaker 2]
Well I don't know.
00:53:30 [Speaker 4]
I mean, you're just gonna go behind the meter.
00:53:32 [Speaker 3]
Just go behind the meter in Texas now.
00:53:35 [Speaker 3]
Put up your own power.
00:53:37 [Speaker 3]
It's all right now.
00:53:38 [Speaker 1]
I I do like that, Google came out and said that, this fell short of our own set standard.
00:53:45 [Speaker 1]
So I guess Google's standard is a chainsaw.
00:53:50 [Speaker 3]
Does Finland's As long as they in Kessler o five, does Finland's halt push hyperscalers toward behind the meter gas in Texas and Louisiana instead?
00:54:02 [Speaker 3]
Mark?
00:54:04 [Speaker 2]
Well, I mean, the Texas question is TBD.
00:54:08 [Speaker 2]
I think everybody believes that once we get past this stop audit that was issued in August by the governor and then the blanket, pause on TCEQ permits, not just, emissions permits, but also stormwater.
00:54:25 [Speaker 2]
So you can't start construction on anything whether it's on grid or behind the meter.
00:54:31 [Speaker 2]
There...
00:54:31 [Speaker 2]
There's there's there's too much tax base and other incentives at stake that either side of the aisle is going to be, I think, ultimately, in its self interest and and its its constituent self interest going to make this pause, you know, some...
00:54:49 [Speaker 2]
Something that's, you know, very, very temporary.
00:54:53 [Speaker 2]
There's just too much money.
00:54:54 [Speaker 2]
There's just too much money at stake.
00:54:56 [Speaker 3]
I honestly think this is a elect...
00:54:58 [Speaker 3]
A a midterm election stoppage.
00:55:01 [Speaker 3]
I don't see it.
00:55:02 [Speaker 3]
I see it being lifted right after, but we'll see.
00:55:06 [Speaker 3]
Breaking breaking is
00:55:07 [Speaker 2]
Hold on real
00:55:08 [Speaker 1]
quick, Kirk.
00:55:08 [Speaker 1]
Real quick, Kirk.
00:55:09 [Speaker 1]
Sorry.
00:55:11 [Speaker 1]
In all seriousness, we might, in January, wanna do a BDE conference where we lay out the data center issue, and we actually come up with the reasonable policy and send it to Abbott and Patrick.
00:55:25 [Speaker 1]
I'd be down there.
00:55:27 [Speaker 1]
I'd be down there.
00:55:27 [Speaker 3]
I love it.
00:55:28 [Speaker 3]
I love it.
00:55:29 [Speaker 3]
That's great.
00:55:30 [Speaker 3]
We we should do that anyway, invite our fans, and, have a policy slash just live event.
00:55:38 [Speaker 3]
Let's do it.
00:55:39 [Speaker 3]
By the way, Jacob, you said you could scroll.
00:55:42 [Speaker 3]
There's breaking news.
00:55:44 [Speaker 3]
I don't see the scroll.
00:55:47 [Speaker 3]
We need we need help here.
00:55:49 [Speaker 3]
But breaking news, Amazon, Xenergy, and American Electric Power are funding a new 960 megawatt nuclear plant in Indiana.
00:55:59 [Speaker 3]
It's 12 SMRs, five gigawatts by 2029.
00:56:06 [Speaker 2]
12 SMRs.
00:56:10 [Speaker 3]
I mean, I love press releases because you don't have to do anything, but By $20.20 grand.
00:56:16 [Speaker 3]
$20.29.
00:56:17 [Speaker 3]
That's actually right
00:56:18 [Speaker 2]
around the corner.
00:56:19 [Speaker 2]
Did did did the NRC disappear?
00:56:25 [Speaker 2]
Oh.
00:56:26 [Speaker 1]
I...
00:56:27 [Speaker 1]
Trump should Trump should come out and just disband it.
00:56:29 [Speaker 1]
You know?
00:56:30 [Speaker 1]
Hey, guys.
00:56:31 [Speaker 1]
Attack from the left.
00:56:32 [Speaker 1]
We, we, we want our stuff, and Liberals want us to build it now.
00:56:38 [Speaker 1]
And they don't want us polluting the environment.
00:56:41 [Speaker 1]
So, okay, we'll do it.
00:56:42 [Speaker 2]
Speaking of other jurisdictions where it's apparently easier to get things done, and we're not as concerned about the political pauses and pushbacks related to nimbyism and activism.
00:56:56 [Speaker 2]
Did you guys see what VG announced with, GE Vernova and Baker Hughes?
00:57:04 [Speaker 2]
Venture Global is now in the, is now in the power for compute business, apparently.
00:57:10 [Speaker 1]
I I saw that they basically, placed their, bids for future turbines, and I bet they...
00:57:18 [Speaker 1]
The resolution of this is in twelve months.
00:57:20 [Speaker 1]
They sell it, make a fortune, and this press release is forgotten.
00:57:24 [Speaker 1]
But maybe not.
00:57:26 [Speaker 2]
Yeah.
00:57:27 [Speaker 2]
By twenty by twenty thirty four, a pathway to 10 gigawatts of compute at sites VG already owns or controls by the end of twenty thirty four with no draw on the public grid or public water, closed loop cooling?
00:57:43 [Speaker 3]
No.
00:57:46 [Speaker 1]
Talk to them at the end of the day.
00:57:48 [Speaker 1]
Nope.
00:57:50 [Speaker 3]
Is that is that me or Chuck?
00:57:54 [Speaker 3]
Chuck, you were garbled there at least to
00:57:56 [Speaker 2]
me.
00:57:56 [Speaker 2]
That's But
00:57:57 [Speaker 3]
let me be let me be clear what this is because we've talked about this before.
00:58:03 [Speaker 3]
What's the scarcest equipment in energy right now?
00:58:07 [Speaker 3]
It's the turbine for these...
00:58:10 [Speaker 3]
All these gas plants.
00:58:11 [Speaker 3]
So let me be clear of what I think this is.
00:58:13 [Speaker 3]
It's not 11.5 gigawatt order.
00:58:16 [Speaker 3]
This is a this is a call option on that on that equipment.
00:58:19 [Speaker 3]
So Venture Global basically paid a reservation fee to hold this place in line at GE, Vernova, and Baker Hughes.
00:58:28 [Speaker 3]
The turbines don't ship until somebody signs a purchase order, but I think to me that's what we're seeing now is we're seeing people getting real creative on how to get in front of the line.
00:58:40 [Speaker 2]
And using the land and water and proximity to the gas that they already have as a part of their core business.
00:58:50 [Speaker 1]
And and why
00:58:51 [Speaker 3]
Probably get away with a
00:58:52 [Speaker 1]
lot less permitting.
00:58:54 [Speaker 1]
Building power plants around the site.
00:58:56 [Speaker 3]
Because they already have what hyperscalers don't have.
00:58:59 [Speaker 3]
They have gas supply and pipeline access and land on the Gulf Coast and permitting experience in Louisiana.
00:59:07 [Speaker 3]
I mean, they've got
00:59:08 [Speaker 2]
Which is pretty wet.
00:59:10 [Speaker 3]
Which is pretty wet.
00:59:18 [Speaker 1]
Yeah.
00:59:18 [Speaker 1]
No.
00:59:18 [Speaker 1]
I...
00:59:19 [Speaker 1]
We...
00:59:20 [Speaker 1]
The garbled line I said was basically that.
00:59:22 [Speaker 1]
You know, we've been talking this whole time about you need to think a lot less about molecules and think more about electrons and creating the solution for big tech so they don't go to Indiana and build big, huge nuclear facilities.
00:59:37 [Speaker 3]
So We we got a few questions.
00:59:39 [Speaker 1]
Anyway, guys, this has been fun.
00:59:41 [Speaker 3]
For a few private equity guys that...
00:59:43 [Speaker 3]
This was sort of a business model.
00:59:45 [Speaker 3]
But if Venture Global flips those turbine slots in a year, who's the buyer?
00:59:49 [Speaker 3]
A hyperscaler or utility?
00:59:53 [Speaker 3]
What a great business.
00:59:54 [Speaker 3]
I mean, just...
00:59:55 [Speaker 3]
I...
00:59:56 [Speaker 3]
Of course, you have to be in the right place at the right time, but they seem to be right there.
01:00:05 [Speaker 1]
So the two forces, basically, you have the rate base and whatever entity is controlling that versus the capital markets contributing to spend by
01:00:17 [Speaker 3]
A couple more...
01:00:17 [Speaker 3]
One more one more comment.
01:00:19 [Speaker 3]
This is from...
01:00:19 [Speaker 3]
Well, that comment was actually from, Owen Thatcher.
01:00:23 [Speaker 3]
Good good good good point.
01:00:25 [Speaker 3]
Camilla Reyes nine says, who got bumped down GE Vernova's queue when Venture Global reserved those power islands?
01:00:31 [Speaker 3]
No idea.
01:00:32 [Speaker 3]
But if but if you're GE, you're taking who's gonna pay the most.
01:00:36 [Speaker 3]
This is your time to to take it.
01:00:40 [Speaker 3]
So whoever's not paying as much.
01:00:42 [Speaker 2]
The the the the...
01:00:43 [Speaker 2]
That could be manufacturing and delivery slots that came available because of...
01:00:48 [Speaker 2]
You know, we've seen a fairly significant amount of project cancellations.
01:00:53 [Speaker 2]
And, you know, you've got to have some kind of credit backs up to be able to put the down payments to secure that equipment in its place in line.
01:01:02 [Speaker 2]
And until you're able to do that, that equipment, you know, that, you know, that reservation expires.
01:01:08 [Speaker 2]
And and it...
01:01:09 [Speaker 2]
And it's it's true in everything across the value chain, including turbines, including resips, including transformer and other switch gear.
01:01:18 [Speaker 2]
The the supply chain and and backlog and timelines are are just so fluid literally week to week.
01:01:26 [Speaker 3]
Who knew?
01:01:26 [Speaker 3]
But but DAP fan on YouTube says
01:01:29 [Speaker 1]
Yeah.
01:01:29 [Speaker 1]
I mean
01:01:30 [Speaker 3]
Oh, I'll get back to that.
01:01:31 [Speaker 3]
Chuck, sorry.
01:01:31 [Speaker 3]
Go ahead and comment.
01:01:36 [Speaker 1]
I was just gonna say, you know, the...
01:01:38 [Speaker 1]
I used to work for the Stevens family, and they used to always keep down payments down at citation as they were building jets because those things would spike in value, and they'd just sell them.
01:01:51 [Speaker 1]
Okay.
01:01:51 [Speaker 1]
I'll take the next plane.
01:01:52 [Speaker 1]
And if it didn't spike, great.
01:01:55 [Speaker 1]
We'll take the plane.
01:01:56 [Speaker 1]
We got some labor or so.
01:01:57 [Speaker 3]
I think we're over time, boys.
01:01:59 [Speaker 3]
I didn't realize that we're live, and it's been an hour of chatting.
01:02:07 [Speaker 1]
It's it's been an hour and two minutes.
01:02:09 [Speaker 1]
And I've been doing
01:02:10 [Speaker 3]
it for one of them, but my bladder is causing me
01:02:13 [Speaker 1]
to head to the restroom.
01:02:15 [Speaker 3]
Can you blow that up, Jacob?
01:02:17 [Speaker 3]
Let's show the...
01:02:18 [Speaker 3]
Yes.
01:02:19 [Speaker 3]
Dude, look at that gold work, man.
01:02:21 [Speaker 2]
Oh, wow.
01:02:25 [Speaker 1]
You know, Colin and I have made a deal that, if Collide is successful, we're gonna go buy grills.
01:02:31 [Speaker 1]
You
01:02:31 [Speaker 2]
want to the Sharpstown Mall?
01:02:32 [Speaker 1]
That guy, Johnny, whatever his name is here in Houston.
01:02:36 [Speaker 1]
They wanted the Sharpstown Mall.
01:02:37 [Speaker 1]
We're gonna go buy grills.
01:02:39 [Speaker 1]
So I'll have that on BD.
01:02:40 [Speaker 4]
Hey.
01:02:41 [Speaker 4]
Chuck, you guys.
01:02:42 [Speaker 4]
Chuck.
01:02:45 [Speaker 1]
Alright, boys.
01:02:46 [Speaker 1]
Alright, boys.
01:02:47 [Speaker 1]
This was a lot of fun.
01:02:49 [Speaker 1]
Let's do it again next week.
01:02:50 [Speaker 1]
I will, I will have a report from LA.
01:02:53 [Speaker 1]
I'm gonna go out and see, My Chemical Romance do the black page show for the third time on this.
01:02:58 [Speaker 3]
Safe out there.
01:02:59 [Speaker 3]
Thanks, everybody.
01:03:00 [Speaker 3]
Cheers.
01:03:00 [Speaker 1]
Thank you.
01:03:01 [Speaker 1]
Cool.
01:03:03 [Speaker 1]
See you, boys.