Big Digital Energy

00;00;00;00 - 00;00;28;27
Unknown
Welcome back, boys. Another, Another installment in the series of the, BD War Chronicles. Welcome back. Dave. Thank you. Thanks for having me. I guess soon to be or maybe soon to be regular. You know, his content. So good. So, we started off, you know, waiting on 5 p.m. central last night. Period. Give us a little sugar high.

00;00;28;29 - 00;01;01;28
Unknown
I say a little sugar high. It was historic in its magnitude. But, as I look right now, we're now 4 or $5 in change below Friday's close, 8578 after, I think Brant touching 120 and by getting into the upper one one teens. I think a lot of, you know, certainly across ones today, not the least of which was the, the G7 meeting.

00;01;02;00 - 00;01;42;29
Unknown
Right. And the recommendation from the IEA to coordinate, an emergency stockpile release of to the tune of 3 or 400 million barrels, which constitutes, you know, depending on your your tally, about a quarter of of the member countries reserves, some public, some commercial. So apparently that was declined, at least for now, although the US has stepped up in the midst of that and said we'd really like to do this release.

00;01;43;02 - 00;02;10;06
Unknown
They've talked to us about at least the US side of the SPR and how it and how it works. Yeah. So the, the, the stats on the SPR are that they're, they're out there for everyone. But the, the key points are we have 415 million barrels in storage today. Max capacity 727, 727 million barrels in underground salt caverns storage.

00;02;10;08 - 00;02;40;26
Unknown
It's all crude oil, and it's typically 60% sour, 40% sweet. So you have that. Those are the numbers. Maximum withdrawal rate, 4.4 million barrels a day. Now, that assumes there's room to put 4.4 million barrels a day on the Gulf Coast. All the salt caverns are in the, Upper Texas, Louisiana Gulf Coast. And they're so they can go into refineries or they can go into boats to be exported.

00;02;40;28 - 00;03;07;22
Unknown
But we've got a pretty crowded system today, right? We produce a lot. We're importing some, we're exporting some. So the question would be because there's not a disruption on the Gulf Coast, what's the capacity to take those where the choke points? I have no idea. If you start asking questions of the SPR on that, you quickly get Homeland Security calling you and saying, who are you?

00;03;07;22 - 00;03;42;14
Unknown
And why do you care? Which happened a number of years ago. So those are the stats now, I heard a Reuters, a Reuters news story that talked about the US also has. And I'll look for 139 million barrels of commercial stocks. Let's be really careful about that. Reuters is usually a pretty good source of energy information, but those 439 million barrels, that's what's reported weekly in the weekly petroleum status report from the EIA.

00;03;42;17 - 00;04;08;29
Unknown
There's a lot of those barrels that aren't moving that has pipeline volumes in it, that has tank bottoms in it. There's you can assume 220 million of that isn't moving. So whatever number you use, somebody close for commercial stocks cut that. Take 220 million off that because that's not real volume. If if you if you sell those you're not priming the pump right.

00;04;08;29 - 00;04;41;14
Unknown
The system's empty and you can't move. So there's just a lot of, reporters trying to report on things they're not comfortable with. So those are the US numbers, I would say 200 million barrels and commercial stocks, 415 of, strategic storage. Yeah. I just saw something in the last hour before we started that, this is another specific issue.

00;04;41;16 - 00;05;13;23
Unknown
Specific California, as usual. You know, California imports, in fact, of its import slate, Iraqi crude makes up about 23% of their total imports. And so we've seen the news of the curtailments and shutdowns in Iraq in particular, I think, to the tune of 3 million barrels a day. And so on top of that, I just saw a piece were much too Chuck's delight.

00;05;13;26 - 00;05;58;19
Unknown
The president is considering a partial or complete suspension of the Jones Act. And why does that matter? Recall that the Jones Act does not allow current shipment between US ports unless they are US constructed and US mostly crude, vessels. And so if we do that, moving some of this heavy sour which at least from a heavier standpoint, California refining system was designed for things like and us and more problematic crudes like, Iraqi crude that that would be, I think, a net benefit to be able to alleviate some of that.

00;05;58;22 - 00;06;35;11
Unknown
Yeah. Mark that the the two steps you'll see when there's a release of Gulf Coast SPR is waived, the Jones act, and you'll have you waive air quality restrictions around ports because you bring in a tanker. It has a ton of vapors in it. When you fill it, those vapors are expelled, expunged or expelled from the tanker. And you create some real air quality issues localized around ports where you're typically not doing you don't have enough vapor recovery capacity.

00;06;35;11 - 00;07;01;01
Unknown
So, you know, those are the two, the two steps you'll see before the government will issue the the actual release, they'll waive Jones Act and they'll create some air quality, buffers around the the ports. Here's my question, Dave. I'm just curious. The I mean, there seems to be a mission creep here, and I'm just just wanting to get your feedback.

00;07;01;03 - 00;07;38;13
Unknown
The IAEA, our favorite topic, was founded after the 1973 oil crisis, and it activated its emergency reserves five times since then the Gulf War, 9100 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The Libyan crisis in 2011 and twice after Russia's Ukraine invasion. So the original purpose seems to be, you know, infrastructure destruction, hurricanes, asshole wars, cutting off physical flows. Now we're deploying it every time there's a higher price of that.

00;07;38;15 - 00;08;12;12
Unknown
So the SPR is starting to look less like emergency reserves and more like a government price cap mechanism. What do you think? Yeah. If you if you talk to your congressmen, what they'll tell you is when gasoline price exceeds some threshold, four bucks, 350, whatever that threshold is locally, their phone starts ringing. Now, my go to move when gas price gets to four bucks isn't to call my congressman, but step on.

00;08;12;14 - 00;08;37;20
Unknown
Is that your congressman coming to you instead? When when when gas hits some threshold. My go to movies and call my congressman. But it is for a lot of people and they hear about it. So the one way they can show that they're doing something is to release and say, hey, we feel your pain. We're doing something because that's all they can do.

00;08;37;22 - 00;09;05;21
Unknown
It's not to my my belief, it's not to the right use of the reserve. It should be, you know, its intention was when there is a true shortage and we find ourselves in a position where if this if this, thing continues and maybe goes off the rail a little bit, we could have a real disruption. And we've got 300 million barrels less crude in the reserves than we should have.

00;09;05;23 - 00;09;32;15
Unknown
And that's a problem. So. Yeah, Kirk, I get it. There's that people are using it for, political, political means, but, I, you know, I think that's the world. The world we live in. Well, well, the last drawdown was really a, you know, pre authorized or free spent, kind of an ATM call. Here's some, some background that might be, might be useful.

00;09;32;18 - 00;10;05;23
Unknown
The, the the IEA was, was the IEA was created, as you said, the because the developed world was surprised at the embargo and realized that it actually didn't know anything about the oil global, gas markets. So there's been this friction between OPEC and the IEA for years. But during the Libyan crisis, there was that strategic release, both coordinated release of of refined products in Europe, oil in the US.

00;10;05;26 - 00;10;33;01
Unknown
I called the IEA the guys on the oil who write the oil market report. And I said I'm surprised that there was a release given the commentary up to that point. The data suggested the market was amply supplied and Saudi had a bunch of excess capacity. And their comment to me was, I said, I bet the Saudis are kind of upset at this.

00;10;33;01 - 00;10;56;24
Unknown
And their comment was, yeah, relieved would be a better adjective that because what that did, that release allowed Saudi. It gave Saudi time to ramp production up because it's not just going out and open a valve. And in two weeks you have another million and a half barrels a day on the market. It takes some time. So two things.

00;10;56;24 - 00;11;27;17
Unknown
One, it did it gives you some color on, you know, Saudi's excess capacity. It isn't all just go open the tap and Shazam. Here it is. But also shows you that the IEA and the OPEC, at least it's a data analyst level, are talking when when Matt Simmons book came out, that fictional book, Twilight in the desert, I was no longer at Simmons.

00;11;27;20 - 00;12;00;12
Unknown
So this was 2003, 2004 timeframe. I think in wrestling, I'm sitting at home and I got a call from the guys who write the oil market report who said what, Matt Matt gave a talk in Washington as a is a preview of the book coming out, which basically says Saudis run out of oil. So the IEA and the Saudis apparently called the IEA and said, what in the heck is going on?

00;12;00;14 - 00;12;22;29
Unknown
And they said, hang on, we know a guy we can call. So they called me and said, look what what's Matt? What is Matt doing? I said, well, Matt Simmons is being Matt Simmons. He's he's he's not speaking for the Bush administration because the IEA said, well, you know, Matt is is the self-appointed energy czar for the Bush administration, which I thought was pretty funny.

00;12;23;01 - 00;13;08;21
Unknown
I said, look, he's not there's no policy here. Don't there's no international crisis. This is Matt being. Matt, call the Saudis and tell them to stand here. Find out. It's just there's no there's no Bush administration. There's no back room thing happening here. And we were just starting Pickering Energy Partners at the time. And so as a, as a favor for that to the IEA, I shouldn't say this was 20 years later, basically gave me access for free to all of their historical data, because it was worth it to them to be able to call their Saudi counterparts and say, stand down.

00;13;08;24 - 00;13;37;05
Unknown
You know, there's but but so so the point there is it's kind of funny anecdote on on Matt in the book, but it really shows there is a lot more coordination across IEA and OPEC, at least at the working level, than there was for the first 20 years or so of the IEA's existence, despite the recent kind of skirmishes and and memos, back in the net zero days.

00;13;37;08 - 00;14;03;17
Unknown
Well, you know, that's that's so the net zero is, is such a barrel and all the, the, the beard bureaucrats, the folks who are talking or the guys at the analytical level and the folks who, who are, you know, slaving away every day on the oil market report, really trying to get the data right. And so those, those kind of the analysts are talking and the bureaucrats do the bureaucratic thing.

00;14;03;19 - 00;14;43;11
Unknown
So let's step back and, and that's I think, unique information on how the world's emergency reserves and coordinating capacity really works. Hopefully that's useful. I think it is. Let's just step back and recalibrate, kind of where we are versus where we started off a week ago. I think the latest thing that I saw was Rubio coming out and basically saying the three objectives are and I'll probably not remember, one of them destroy their, ballistic missile stockpile.

00;14;43;11 - 00;15;21;28
Unknown
And I think their ability to make those things, maybe nukes are embedded in that, but also to destroy their navy, which, you know, Trump, either contemporaneously or shortly after in an interview said, you know, I think it's very much complete, always throw a very in there and well ahead of the 4 to 5 weeks, time frame that we expected, I don't recall really hearing at the outset of anything that put that fine of a point on what the campaign was going to be, but I may be splitting hairs here.

00;15;22;00 - 00;15;52;09
Unknown
And then you have, the, at least seemingly verified that the expert of councils appointed successor to Khamenei was his son, Mojtaba, who apparently was seriously injured in either that attack or some other and may have lost one of his legs and one report us all, stating that he might not even know that he's the Supreme Leader.

00;15;52;11 - 00;16;23;01
Unknown
And so I, I've been doing a little bit of reading on this, this IRGC mosaic defense that they've set up. They have apparently 31 essentially autonomous groups that are really leading the response. And if you look at the at the disconnect between what the president of Iran said yesterday or the day before, you know, in somewhat apologetic tones to the Gulf states that have been targeted, that we're not going to do that anymore.

00;16;23;03 - 00;16;52;20
Unknown
And within the hour, the, you know, the strikes have resumed. And so, I think we're seeing play out here what we also talked about last week, which is something that, wrap it in, was that was very early and that is, you know, the backed into the corner wounded animal. We're going to inflict as much economic pain and catastrophe on the US and the West as we can.

00;16;52;20 - 00;17;16;14
Unknown
And, you know, this de facto closure of the strait is apparently leading up to that. We'll see. But how do you guys think about going to where we are now versus where we were a week ago? Well, I mean, I've a lot of comments on on that. You brought up the mosaic defense. It does sound like a home renovation company, by the way.

00;17;16;21 - 00;18;05;19
Unknown
Mosaic Defense and Tile Works. But that is so Iran for you. The terrifying part is each unit. So the reorganized its military into 31 autonomous units. Each unit can independently launch missiles and deploy drone swarms, conduct ambushes, etc. on there. It sounds very like when we know back in the days when we learned about this guerrilla warfare concept, I think when I think about this, the real kicker is the control of the chokepoints, like the Strait of Hormuz, like what becomes more unpredictable when provincial naval and missile units can act autonomously?

00;18;05;19 - 00;18;48;07
Unknown
I think that's probably the biggest issue here. What could go wrong? I don't know, but that that that's, to me, from an oil and gas perspective that's really something that everyone's trying to figure out there. What do you think? Yeah, I think if we go back to Monday, we we talked about, the things the things are early whenever the last podcast, early in this conflict was the things you really worry about are the straits, the shipping lanes, you worry about attacks on Saudi infrastructure, and you worry about the Iranians pulling an Iraqi and just burn it to burn their own oil fields to the ground.

00;18;48;07 - 00;19;16;15
Unknown
Now. Okay, so so what's happened? So the straits are clearly not safe. I don't know that it matters if the Iranian navy is a thing anymore or not. If you've got drones that you've got 31 different groups manning. A drone can inflict a lot of a lot of, damage on a tanker. So I don't think the Straits are clear yet.

00;19;16;16 - 00;19;43;28
Unknown
At least not not. And I don't see it. So you've got that. You've got the Iranians contradicting themselves on whether they're going to attack neighbors or not. And again, if you're in a world of trying to inflict maximum economic pain, there's some key strategic points in in Saudi. And it was, spent seven years since Iran fired a missile into the key production facilities, outside of Guam.

00;19;43;28 - 00;20;09;00
Unknown
So they, they clearly they show they can do it. We'll see. And then you had the Israelis bombing, oil depots over the weekend, which I think that was as much a part of the, the, the run up as anything. So like, oh. Oh, yeah. Yeah, it's infrastructure, but it's not, it's just a depot. But what's next?

00;20;09;02 - 00;20;31;07
Unknown
And so that was to me, I thought the U.S. and Israel would, would kind of say, hands off to oil infrastructure, because that's the one thing it will make oil prices go high really fast. So again, I think we're still watching the same things to see how it how it unfolds over the next few days and weeks.

00;20;31;09 - 00;20;54;15
Unknown
I think there was no more reposted video circular on X this weekend than that depot bombing and resultant kind of mushroom cloud footage. George Noble has a good piece on a lot of the elements of the. And one of the things that's in that I can't recall all the points that he made is that, you know, apparently a Greek tanker made it through.

00;20;54;16 - 00;21;18;05
Unknown
Well, how did they do that with the single off, which I don't know what they're trying to transponder off and then turn it back on, which is not sustainable. And until we get a normalization, of insurance and reinsurance, not to mention the fact that if you're a merchant mariner, are you going to climb on board and sleep well?

00;21;18;07 - 00;21;41;24
Unknown
Probably not. That is the most ignorant statement I've heard in a long time, because clearly you didn't wake up pushing your dad's car out of the driveway past midnight with without the motor running, pushing it down the street, starting it, and driving with no lights for a while so that you wouldn't get caught. That is, that is Greek.

00;21;41;24 - 00;22;04;23
Unknown
Multiple times during the there you go single off me. And that's like child's play. Of course we're turning the signal off. We want to get paid. So we're going to push through the Hormuz. And by the way, Iranian tankers are going in and out. They're not being touched. They're still they're still pushing they're still pushing fuel through the strait.

00;22;04;26 - 00;22;31;06
Unknown
Yeah. Because the U.S. and Israel aren't going to attack them. I mean, but here's what's interesting about you're saying about acts. The kicker is most of it. So what is the curtailment? How much? 5 million barrels offline. Well, under five at the midpoint, but I mean, and most of the curtailments are due to storage fill up in terminal offloading slowdowns, not actual infrastructure damage.

00;22;31;09 - 00;23;06;25
Unknown
So right to me, I mean, I'm curious about, UAE storage hub, outside of the strait. Cushing the I mean, really the floating storage numbers from, you know, I don't know who's tracking it from satellites, but if you see the the floating storage starting to build rapidly, which is where barrels, you know, barrels that have nowhere to go, I think that's going to tell us more about the duration of this disruption than than any diplomat statement.

00;23;06;25 - 00;23;31;28
Unknown
And I don't again, I think sort of the the bombs going off is maybe it's maybe that's, you know, more hype than reality. Yeah. I, it's it's a good point. I think it's a if there's not infrastructure damage, as soon as the straits are opened, oil is going to flow really quickly because you've got a lot of your storage.

00;23;31;29 - 00;24;00;29
Unknown
Your storage tanks are full at all the ports. It's just a matter of repositioning boats and and getting them lined up. The the market will will resume, normal operations very quickly. Again, caveat there's no damage. I think I've seen a counter point to that very quickly, taking months to get back to normal. That may have something more to do with, the insurance dilemma.

00;24;01;01 - 00;24;28;18
Unknown
More than anything, this is totally off topic, but I'm just curious if you're an oil tanker captain, are you dialing for dollars at this point? Said, hey, who's going to pay me the most? What port wants me the most? Because I've got something for you. I've mean, this is this is, wild out west all over again. If they could do that, I think the Saudis just contracted today for something on the order of 4 million barrels.

00;24;28;18 - 00;24;56;07
Unknown
What is that? A couple of vlcc is, That was for, you know, they they've got an option to take pressure off from the east west pipeline, take it over the red sea. And so, as we talked about last week there, there's a lot more flexibility in the system, despite the fact that, you know, all the headlines are focused on on a 20% punch point, which is destroyed.

00;24;56;10 - 00;25;08;21
Unknown
Now, if we think about the US, one of the other levers that have been mentioned is maybe curtailment of U.S. crude export.

00;25;08;23 - 00;25;43;17
Unknown
And, you know, if I think about that, what's the destination of those exports, which are mostly likely because our Gulf Coast for refining complex, has maxed out on like sweet and we get most of our heavy stuff today from Canada and other places in the Western Hemisphere. So what is what is there an export curtailment do other than maybe creates a momentary problems here in the US?

00;25;43;17 - 00;26;11;20
Unknown
Now, Cushing has got a long way to go, but. What should we be watching? I don't it's a great question mark. And if you start, if you look at the import export flows from the from the EIA on either the weekly or monthly data, it's a complicated it gets complicated really quickly. You know, if you listen to Sean Hannity it's easy.

00;26;11;22 - 00;26;41;22
Unknown
Well, we we we we're energy independent. Okay, fine. But we're producing a very light crude. Right. What's coming out of West Texas in the in the the shale, the shale revolution is light. Light crude. We're we're we've got the most or the high I think the highest concentration of high. Quality refining capacity in the world on the Gulf Coast.

00;26;41;24 - 00;27;09;10
Unknown
They're looking for heavy, sour crews in general. So that's why we export light sweet. We import heavy sour net. Net it. You know, we're we're energy independent if you think about it that way. But I'm not sure what an export ban does other than create a bottleneck of light sweet crude that maybe the refiners are less efficient, in their processing.

00;27;09;10 - 00;27;34;00
Unknown
So. Well and it's it's problematic to try to jam more because you get, you get less metal distort out of it. And people look at what diesel prices have done here in the last few days. That starts to get into some really interesting, kind of economic structural questions, because we know how diesel dependent the world's economy is, particularly the US.

00;27;34;02 - 00;28;08;08
Unknown
Having driven across the long stretch of I-40 here in the last few days and playing 18 Wheeler, bumper cars is, always strikes me how much truck traffic there is traversing the the continental US on a, on a daily basis. So and looking at the big green digital sign postings of I'm always looking for the red for the gasoline at 13.8 miles per gallon, but you know, being north of kind of 455 bucks for diesel, I don't know where we are today.

00;28;08;08 - 00;28;34;15
Unknown
I think some have gone well north of five x California, which is another, another market unto itself. But yeah, that's a great point, Mark, because diesel runs logistics. I mean, all those trucks, trains, agriculture, construction I mean that's that's a really good point. What's it going to do to food prices. And. Well, and that's just not trivial on this too.

00;28;34;16 - 00;29;07;04
Unknown
And I've exhausted my expert knowledge on, on the downstream. But yeah. So you're talking about repair plants. Yeah. Did they run on sustainable aviation fuel? What are you talking about? Oh that's right. Oh, man. No, they're going electric, actually. But let's talk about the other. The far upstream into the south. So, you know, a few comments over the weekend to about these shut ins and curtailments and.

00;29;07;06 - 00;29;40;18
Unknown
In varying degrees of, of urgency or, I don't know what the, the proper form of ominous Tom, raising the potential for reservoir damage. Yeah, it's it's my favorite. It it's one of my favorite topics because it's one of those where if you don't know anything, you can smell the reservoir is going to be damaged. I'm curious how that works.

00;29;40;21 - 00;30;04;14
Unknown
It it it it doesn't work that way. And, I mean, but it's thrown out all the time. So people talk about, well, these fields are shut down really fast. Yeah, they were probably some of them were in Iran. But guess what? Every field has emergency shutdown procedures, right? If something happens, you get a lightning strike somewhere.

00;30;04;15 - 00;30;37;20
Unknown
Boom. You've. So fields are made to shut down quickly okay. Yeah. It's it's not that I so I don't worry about that I worry about if there's if there's damage. Well it happens if it's not shut down correctly there can be damage. But but a reservoir damage. I don't understand the mechanism. And I taught a well testing class last fall, so it doesn't make me an expert, but I think I understand what's happening in the reservoir pretty well.

00;30;37;22 - 00;30;58;07
Unknown
And we're talking about high quality conventional reservoirs, high quality conventional stuff. When we were when we were setting wells in during Covid in West Texas, they were they were road pumping wells that were, a barrel a day of oil and 95 barrels a day of water. I mean, they were low margin and they weren't making cash flow.

00;30;58;08 - 00;31;19;13
Unknown
So you shut them in. Yeah, there's some issues. If you shut those in improperly or you you shut them in too long, they're not going to start back up. Right. You may have to go and do work over and pull rods and okay, fine, I get that. And we actually didn't have that much of that because they weren't set in very long.

00;31;19;15 - 00;31;59;08
Unknown
But those are barrel a day Wells. It's not the high quality, conventional Middle East stuff. That again, I don't I don't understand the, the what the reservoir damage mechanism would be. I think the concern would be in those types of reservoirs if, particularly or fairly depletion driver, gas cap, expansion drive, you're more, more worried about producing over your mark or your maximum fishing rate and creating some, some fluid migration and pressure.

00;31;59;10 - 00;32;22;11
Unknown
Critical pressure issues. Yeah. The the reservoirs that you worry about, our aquifer drive, particularly aquifer drive gas reservoirs, because if you shut down, you give a chance for the aquifer to expand in, and it'll bypass some of the gas, and you lose, lose recovery. I don't think those are key reservoirs that we're talking about in the Middle East.

00;32;22;13 - 00;32;51;24
Unknown
So just you just use the mother of all examples for from water drive going or what happens, you know, they've got, you know, nothing. Nothing is not going to be shut in for very long. So so let me give you an example. We shut in a, so there was a volcano in the Cook Inlet west of the Cook Inlet, in the late 80s, we it shut down the drift River oil terminal.

00;32;51;24 - 00;33;22;06
Unknown
So the, the, the offshore fields could no longer produce. So we shut them in. It's like, well, we can keep injecting water. Gives you a chance to really pressure up your water flood. Because we're not shutting that when we had people on the platforms. Might as well keep injecting. And man, those wells came on like gangbusters. After three months of, you know, over injecting with no production.

00;33;22;08 - 00;33;45;28
Unknown
And it was spectacular. So I'm not suggesting there's going to be a production bump, but if you if you're if you're managing your reservoirs correctly, a shut in gives you a chance to actually do some things. That's not happening in Iran, but it may be happening in Iraq or in Iraq and maybe happening in Saudi Kuwaiti Emirates, where you actually take time to do some testing.

00;33;45;28 - 00;34;10;14
Unknown
And again, it's not, I, I don't I struggle with the, the that there's some long term productivity impact from sitting in a giant oil field for a few weeks or months. And, and the notion that the Saudis and, Emiratis and etc. have been doing this for.

00;34;10;17 - 00;34;39;08
Unknown
Some for 70 plus years, don't know what they're doing is so so the Saudis are pretty smart and I'm I'm teacher and I talk to a class last spring. I'm teaching a class this spring as roughly half the class are Saudis and they're all very bright. I have absolutely, no, no concerns with the technical capabilities of the Saudi workforce.

00;34;39;10 - 00;35;10;12
Unknown
The foundational reality is we're talking about, in some cases, world class, reservoirs on a number of criteria. Porosity, permeability, you know, pressure, support, all of those things. Strength of water, drive in good rock. Right. So I always think about resting a reservoir is a good thing. Commercial reservoir is a good thing if you have the opportunity to do it.

00;35;10;14 - 00;35;46;07
Unknown
Yeah, absolutely. You've got world class management practices on top of that. So. So you're cooking. Another example is the literally, example of flush production. Absolutely. Yeah. It was it was pretty amazing. I mean just great. Interesting so far. Dave, what is your prediction? I mean, since we always like to predict here. Yeah I, you know what I, what I, I think so you're trying to back me in a corner and I may give you one, but I think in my mind, this, this event is not tradable.

00;35;46;10 - 00;36;15;11
Unknown
It's not investable for sure. And it's damn sure not tradable, given what we've seen in the last, you know, 15 hours. So I don't know that there's enough information. But again, the things I think the things to watch are still there. Saudi infrastructure, Iranian infrastructure and what goes on with shipping in the Straits, whether there's the physical or the financial insurance issues.

00;36;15;11 - 00;36;49;18
Unknown
Can you start to get commerce flowing? Those are important. And if you can't, then you got to worry about what the IAEA does with the coordinated release, etc.. But, my my sense is, I think there's, there's a low probability that there's some major infrastructure issue. But it is not it is clearly a non-zero probability.

00;36;49;24 - 00;37;15;15
Unknown
Right. It's it's not zero. Are you saying that that Vtol or Trafigura is not on the phone with that Greek ship and, and a lot of these ships on the water and trying to do deals right now. Well, I think they are the challenges. You know, if you look at the shipping industry, I mean, if your last name ends in Opolis, it's your birthright to own a couple boats, right?

00;37;15;22 - 00;37;41;16
Unknown
So you've got a ton of you know, Greek families with 3 or 4 boats. And so I don't know how you I don't know, I, I think it's not one phone call. I think it's a whole bunch of them. And I don't know how you you coordinate that, but, I, I do, I do think the shipping lanes are going to be the key again.

00;37;41;16 - 00;38;08;17
Unknown
Key focus. This president doesn't like high energy prices and it's getting the shipping fixed. I think that's a that's priority number one. To get the shipping lanes fixed now that we have college football taken care of with the NRL, discussions on Friday, we got that out of the way. Now we can worry about the the important the next important issue which is getting commerce flowing.

00;38;08;17 - 00;38;32;28
Unknown
So, you know, I don't know, but I don't know how it plays out, but I think you have to reduce the the kinetic threat, and then you have to figure out a way. I think Mark brought this point. It's a good one. How do you how do you create insurance? How do you financially allow shipping to or create a thing where financially you can get shipping back, back in order?

00;38;32;28 - 00;39;03;18
Unknown
So it seems like the quickest way to get to that. You know, let's tamp down the kinetic aspect of this is, you know, we talked about it last week. And the goal as well as parallels is to get to, you know, a workable relationship with essentially elements of the old regime. And you saying the president demand, you know, unconditional surrender.

00;39;03;20 - 00;39;39;05
Unknown
And if if that's not in the offing, he's open to, you know, killing mastaba Khomeini as well. Who we don't know might have already succumbed. Sounds like he was pretty seriously injured. But, the, you know, if we if we dig deeper into or we push deeper into something that effectively looks like complete regime change, then we're back in the kind of uncertainty and volatility world that we saw overnight.

00;39;39;07 - 00;40;19;27
Unknown
But just take a look at the back. So and compared it kind of all time today and overnight the VIX was paled in comparison to what we saw in 2008, 2009. You barely touched 30 as back settled back in the kind of the mid 20s. Now it's elevated. But we saw we saw into the 60s and 70s back in 2008, 2009, we didn't even see that high, and we didn't even see as high in the VIX as we did during Covid, but well, so so again, I'm not I'm not going to be I'm not going to take a political stand.

00;40;19;27 - 00;40;46;19
Unknown
I'm thinking about this from an oil market perspective. On Friday. I don't think I've seen goalposts move this fast since Tennessee tore the goalposts down and threw them in the river. Okay. You went from we're going to, we got to get a new regime in there who doesn't want a nuke the rest of the world to on a Friday, where you can't, you're going to be blind for two days trading.

00;40;46;21 - 00;41;16;06
Unknown
It went from that to unconditional surrender. And then you got a you got Israel bombing fuel depots and the Iranians replace one leader with another who's probably just as kind of hard, hard core as the other guy. So, I mean, you looked at all the things happened over the weekend. I don't know how you trade that. It it's what what else is going to come out?

00;41;16;06 - 00;41;45;13
Unknown
And it's, yeah, I, I was there was a whirlwind of information over the weekend and things were changing rapidly. The memes, the memes were good. Coming out of the up yesterday about immediately buying raptors. And then when crude trades off the day they rebound, my Raptor. You just just one correction day. It wasn't Tennessee that threw the goalpost.

00;41;45;13 - 00;42;10;05
Unknown
It was Vanderbilt. And Vanderbilt not only took the goalpost down, but they had to walk all the way to the river, which is freaking far from yeah, I it was not just, Tennessee is right on the river. Vanderbilt had to walk frickin far to get there. So but that's that is a that's enough for a West End all the way down Broadway, dude.

00;42;10;05 - 00;42;35;18
Unknown
All the way. I apologize to the I apologize to the seven Vanderbilt fans out there who care about that ball. There's a actually I we did a poll. There's a so yeah we want to be we want to be accurate. So get good clarification dude I know a big I know one and he's a big donor. And he is a guy that all three of us know well.

00;42;35;18 - 00;42;42;14
Unknown
So we can talk after the podcast. But.

00;42;42;17 - 00;43;08;25
Unknown
But that goalpost regardless, that goalpost moved pretty fast. Super ants answer good at that. Yeah, great. Great call guys. That was fun. And then just be careful that one of the mosaic defense guys doesn't send a drone to your backyard. Yeah, good. Good point. Well, he. I don't know if he can locate me up here in the mountains, so.

00;43;08;27 - 00;43;35;24
Unknown
All right, gentlemen, this is fun. Hopefully you get some settling over another winter. We'll have to be right back here again. And, I'd like a little calmness this week, but we'll see. Thanks, everybody. Tune tuning in. If you like it, share it with friends. Subscribe sub subscribe Register on collide. It's free and tell us if you are one of those Vanderbilt fans.

00;43;35;26 - 00;43;49;06
Unknown
Go ahead and speak out. And Chuck, we hope you get your, your Your Guns Act waiver early Christmas present.